Round 19: eero 400 — RaceIQ NASCAR

Round 19

eero 400

IntermediateResult + Forecast

Venue

Chicagoland Speedway

United States

Race Format

IntermediateStages 80 / 85 / 102

3 stages, 267 laps.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Model favours Denny Hamlin (24%) over Ryan Blaney (11%).

INTERMEDIATE

Chicagoland Speedway is an intermediate — the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 1/3 of the podium — typical miss 8.5 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Christopher Bell

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P6–P34

Predicted P16

Race Winner

Chase Briscoe

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P35

Predicted P6

Denny Hamlin

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P31

Predicted P1

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

24%57%

Larson

10%28%

Blaney

11%31%

Gibbs

8%24%

Reddick

5%16%

Briscoe

6%19%

Buescher

4%13%

Hocevar

4%12%

Elliott

3%10%

Jones

3%10%

Suárez

3%10%

Byron

2%8%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	24%	57%	P1–P31	11%	Low	P3
2	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	10%	28%	P2–P33	11%	Low	P34
3	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	11%	31%	P1–P35	16%	Low	P7
4	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	8%	24%	P2–P35	14%	Low	P8
5	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	5%	16%	P2–P20	10%	High	P36
6	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	6%	19%	P2–P35	13%	Low	P1
7	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	4%	13%	P3–P31	10%	Medium	P19
8	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	4%	12%	P3–P34	14%	Low	P22
9	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	3%	10%	P4–P33	11%	Low	P11
10	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	3%	10%	P4–P31	11%	Medium	P15
11	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	3%	10%	P4–P35	16%	Low	P14
12	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	2%	8%	P4–P34	13%	Low	P4
13	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	2%	7%	P5–P33	11%	Medium	P29
14	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	2%	8%	P5–P35	17%	Low	P6
15	Corey Heim 23XI Racing	2%	6%	P5–P35	17%	Low	P9
16	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	1%	4%	P6–P34	13%	Medium	P2
17	Austin Cindric Team Penske	1%	4%	P7–P34	13%	Medium	P13
18	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	1%	4%	P7–P34	13%	Medium	P18
19	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	1%	3%	P7–P33	11%	Medium	P23
20	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	1%	3%	P8–P34	13%	Medium	P32
21	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	1%	4%	P8–P34	13%	Medium	P10
22	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	1%	2%	P9–P34	14%	Medium	P17
23	JJ Yeley NY Racing Team	1%	3%	P8–P36	21%	Medium	P35
24	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	0%	2%	P10–P34	13%	Medium	P25
25	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	0%	2%	P11–P34	14%	High	P5
26	Joey Logano Team Penske	1%	2%	P11–P34	13%	High	P12
27	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	1%	2%	P11–P34	13%	High	P26
28	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P12–P35	14%	High	P28
29	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P13–P33	11%	High	P16
30	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	0%	1%	P14–P35	16%	High	P21
31	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P17–P35	13%	High	P24
32	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	1%	P17–P35	13%	High	P31
33	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	1%	P18–P36	20%	High	P38
34	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P22–P35	12%	High	P37
35	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	0%	P22–P35	11%	High	P20
36	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	0%	P23–P36	16%	High	P27
37	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	0%	0%	P24–P36	17%	High	P33
38	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P25–P36	17%	High	P30

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

80 laps

1	William Byron	+10
2	Kyle Larson	+9
3	Bubba Wallace	+8
4	Austin Cindric	+7
5	Chase Briscoe	+6
6	Chris Buescher	+5
7	Riley Herbst	+4
8	Denny Hamlin	+3
9	Ty Gibbs	+2
10	Tyler Reddick	+1

Stage 2

85 laps

1	William Byron	+10
2	Chase Briscoe	+9
3	Denny Hamlin	+8
4	Ty Gibbs	+7
5	Ryan Blaney	+6
6	Christopher Bell	+5
7	Chase Elliott	+4
8	Alex Bowman	+3
9	Austin Cindric	+2
10	John H. Nemechek	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Denny Hamlin

24.2% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Intermediate

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Intermediate

Chicagoland Speedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Intermediate racing: the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

24%57%

Larson

10%28%

Blaney

11%31%

Gibbs

8%24%

Reddick

5%16%

Briscoe

6%19%

Buescher

4%13%

Hocevar

4%12%

Elliott

3%10%

Jones

3%10%

Suárez

3%10%

Byron

2%8%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 2 exact, 9 of 38 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38
DEHAMLIN
KYLARSON
RYBLANEY
TYGIBBS
TYREDDICK
CHBRISCOE
CHBUESCHER
CAHOCEVAR
CHELLIOTT
ERJONES
DASUAREZ
WIBYRON
MIMCDOWELL
BUWALLACE
COHEIM
CHBELL
AUCINDRIC
ROCHASTAIN
JONEMECHEK
RYPREECE
RIHERBST
AJALLMENDINGER
JJYELEY
SHGISBERGEN
ALBOWMAN
JOLOGANO
RISTENHOUSE
ZASMITH
TOGILLILAND
BRKESELOWSKI
AUDILLON
COCUSTER
COZILISCH
AUHILL
TYDILLON
NOGRAGSON
JOBERRY
COWARE

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	DEHAMLIN	KYLARSON	RYBLANEY	TYGIBBS	TYREDDICK	CHBRISCOE	CHBUESCHER	CAHOCEVAR	CHELLIOTT	ERJONES	DASUAREZ	WIBYRON
DEHAMLIN	—	68	67	72	77	76	79	80	81	82	81	84
KYLARSON	32	—	49	55	62	60	65	67	70	70	71	74
RYBLANEY	33	51	—	56	63	61	65	66	69	70	71	73
TYGIBBS	28	45	44	—	57	56	59	61	65	66	66	69
TYREDDICK	23	38	37	43	—	48	53	57	59	60	62	65
CHBRISCOE	24	40	39	44	52	—	54	56	59	61	61	65
CHBUESCHER	22	35	35	41	47	46	—	53	55	58	60	61
CAHOCEVAR	20	33	34	39	43	44	47	—	53	53	56	58
CHELLIOTT	19	30	31	35	41	41	45	47	—	53	54	56
ERJONES	18	30	30	35	40	39	42	47	47	—	52	55
DASUAREZ	19	29	29	34	38	39	40	44	46	48	—	53
WIBYRON	16	26	27	31	35	35	39	42	44	45	47	—