Round 18: Toyota / Save Mart 350

Round 18

Toyota / Save Mart 350

Road CourseResult + Forecast

Venue

Sonoma Raceway

United States

Race Format

Road CourseStages 25 / 30 / 55

3 stages, 110 laps.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Model favours Denny Hamlin (22%) over Tyler Reddick (11%).

ROAD COURSE

Sonoma Raceway is a road course — left AND right turns — braking zones, tire management and racecraft separate the field.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 0/3 of the podium — typical miss 9.7 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Chase Briscoe

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P4–P32

Predicted P10

Race Winner

Shane Van Gisbergen

Trackhouse Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P15–P32

Predicted P26

Ty Gibbs

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P33

Predicted P6

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

22%55%

Reddick

11%32%

Buescher

7%21%

Larson

7%21%

Blaney

9%26%

Gibbs

7%21%

Elliott

4%13%

Suárez

5%15%

Wallace

4%13%

Briscoe

3%9%

McDowell

2%9%

Herbst

3%9%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	22%	55%	P1–P29	10%	Low	P26
2	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	11%	32%	P1–P15	9%	High	P36
3	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	7%	21%	P2–P18	9%	High	P19
4	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	7%	21%	P2–P29	10%	Low	P4
5	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	9%	26%	P2–P33	15%	Low	P6
6	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	7%	21%	P2–P33	13%	Low	P3
7	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	4%	13%	P3–P31	10%	Low	P17
8	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	5%	15%	P3–P33	15%	Low	P31
9	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	4%	13%	P3–P34	16%	Low	P22
10	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	3%	9%	P4–P32	12%	Low	P2
11	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	2%	9%	P4–P25	10%	Medium	P9
12	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	3%	9%	P4–P32	12%	Low	P30
13	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	2%	7%	P5–P27	10%	Medium	P23
14	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	3%	8%	P4–P33	13%	Low	P11
15	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	2%	5%	P5–P32	13%	Low	P16
16	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	2%	5%	P6–P28	10%	Medium	P25
17	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	2%	5%	P6–P32	12%	Medium	P8
18	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	1%	4%	P7–P33	13%	Medium	P18
19	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	1%	4%	P7–P32	12%	Medium	P14
20	Austin Cindric Team Penske	1%	3%	P8–P31	12%	Medium	P13
21	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	1%	3%	P8–P31	12%	Medium	P12
22	Joey Logano Team Penske	1%	2%	P9–P33	12%	Medium	P24
23	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	1%	2%	P10–P32	12%	Medium	P5
24	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	1%	2%	P11–P31	10%	Medium	P29
25	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P13–P32	12%	Medium	P27
26	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	0%	1%	P15–P32	12%	High	P1
27	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	1%	P15–P32	12%	High	P21
28	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	0%	1%	P15–P33	13%	Medium	P10
29	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	0%	1%	P16–P33	15%	High	P15
30	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	0%	P19–P33	12%	High	P20
31	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	0%	P20–P33	10%	High	P35
32	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	0%	P21–P34	15%	High	P32
33	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	0%	0%	P22–P33	11%	High	P34
34	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	0%	0%	P22–P34	16%	High	P28
35	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P22–P34	16%	High	P33
36	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	0%	P25–P35	19%	High	P7

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

25 laps

1	Ty Gibbs	+10
2	Christopher Bell	+9
3	Michael McDowell	+8
4	Carson Hocevar	+7
5	Ryan Preece	+6
6	Alex Bowman	+5
7	Shane Van Gisbergen	+4
8	Erik Jones	+3
9	Kyle Larson	+2
10	Riley Herbst	+1

Stage 2

30 laps

1	Ty Gibbs	+10
2	Christopher Bell	+9
3	AJ Allmendinger	+8
4	Austin Cindric	+7
5	Ross Chastain	+6
6	Zane Smith	+5
7	Shane Van Gisbergen	+4
8	Connor Zilisch	+3
9	Chase Briscoe	+2
10	Ryan Blaney	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Denny Hamlin

22.3% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Road Course

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Road Course

Sonoma Raceway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Road Course racing: left AND right turns — braking zones, tire management and racecraft separate the field. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

22%55%

Reddick

11%32%

Buescher

7%21%

Larson

7%21%

Blaney

9%26%

Gibbs

7%21%

Elliott

4%13%

Suárez

5%15%

Wallace

4%13%

Briscoe

3%9%

McDowell

2%9%

Herbst

3%9%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 3 exact, 12 of 36 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36
DEHAMLIN
TYREDDICK
CHBUESCHER
KYLARSON
RYBLANEY
TYGIBBS
CHELLIOTT
DASUAREZ
BUWALLACE
CHBRISCOE
MIMCDOWELL
RIHERBST
ERJONES
CAHOCEVAR
AJALLMENDINGER
JONEMECHEK
RYPREECE
ZASMITH
ROCHASTAIN
AUCINDRIC
WIBYRON
JOLOGANO
CHBELL
TOGILLILAND
AUDILLON
SHGISBERGEN
RISTENHOUSE
ALBOWMAN
BRKESELOWSKI
COCUSTER
TYDILLON
NOGRAGSON
AUHILL
JOBERRY
COWARE
COZILISCH

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	DEHAMLIN	TYREDDICK	CHBUESCHER	KYLARSON	RYBLANEY	TYGIBBS	CHELLIOTT	DASUAREZ	BUWALLACE	CHBRISCOE	MIMCDOWELL	RIHERBST
DEHAMLIN	—	64	72	72	69	73	79	77	79	82	83	82
TYREDDICK	36	—	60	60	56	62	70	68	71	76	76	76
CHBUESCHER	28	40	—	50	48	52	62	58	62	69	70	69
KYLARSON	28	40	50	—	47	51	60	59	61	68	69	68
RYBLANEY	31	44	52	53	—	55	63	61	63	68	69	69
TYGIBBS	27	38	48	49	45	—	59	56	61	66	67	66
CHELLIOTT	21	30	38	40	37	41	—	48	53	57	58	59
DASUAREZ	23	32	42	41	39	44	52	—	54	59	60	60
BUWALLACE	21	29	38	39	37	39	47	46	—	54	57	57
CHBRISCOE	18	24	31	32	32	34	43	41	46	—	51	52
MIMCDOWELL	17	24	30	31	31	33	42	40	43	49	—	50
RIHERBST	18	24	31	32	32	34	41	40	43	48	50	—