Round 17: Anduril 250 — RaceIQ NASCAR

Round 17

Anduril 250

Road CourseResult + Forecast

Venue

San Diego Street Course

United States

Race Format

Road CourseStages 20 / 20 / 35

3 stages, 75 laps.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Denny Hamlin is the clear favourite at 26% — nobody else clears 18%.

ROAD COURSE

San Diego Street Course is a road course — left AND right turns — braking zones, tire management and racecraft separate the field.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 0/3 of the podium — typical miss 10.2 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Bubba Wallace

23XI Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P6–P36

Predicted P19

Race Winner

Corey Heim

23XI Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P11–P36

Predicted P27

Kyle Larson

Hendrick Motorsports

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P30

Predicted P6

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

26%62%

Reddick

18%50%

Gibbs

8%24%

Blaney

7%22%

Buescher

4%13%

Larson

3%11%

Suárez

3%12%

Briscoe

3%10%

Jones

3%10%

Elliott

3%8%

Nemechek

2%6%

McDowell

2%5%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	26%	62%	P1–P12	10%	High	P14
2	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	18%	50%	P1–P10	9%	High	P25
3	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	8%	24%	P2–P35	13%	Low	P15
4	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	7%	22%	P2–P36	14%	Low	P9
5	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	4%	13%	P3–P23	9%	High	P6
6	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	3%	11%	P3–P30	10%	Medium	P3
7	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	3%	12%	P3–P36	14%	Low	P13
8	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	3%	10%	P3–P34	12%	Low	P17
9	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	3%	10%	P4–P32	10%	Medium	P20
10	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	3%	8%	P4–P34	10%	Low	P12
11	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	2%	6%	P5–P29	10%	Medium	P16
12	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	2%	5%	P5–P31	9%	Medium	P10
13	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	2%	6%	P5–P34	12%	Low	P39
14	Kevin Magnussen Trackhouse Racing	2%	6%	P5–P34	12%	Low	P27
15	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	2%	7%	P5–P35	13%	Low	P19
16	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	2%	5%	P5–P35	12%	Low	P32
17	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	2%	5%	P5–P34	11%	Low	P38
18	Austin Cindric Team Penske	1%	4%	P6–P35	12%	Low	P22
19	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	1%	5%	P6–P36	16%	Low	P2
20	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	1%	3%	P8–P35	12%	Medium	P8
21	Jimmie Johnson Legacy Motor Club	1%	3%	P8–P36	17%	Medium	P28
22	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	1%	3%	P8–P36	13%	Medium	P5
23	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	1%	2%	P9–P33	9%	Medium	P36
24	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	1%	2%	P9–P35	12%	Medium	P11
25	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	1%	2%	P10–P35	10%	Medium	P21
26	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	1%	P11–P34	11%	High	P33
27	Corey Heim 23XI Racing	1%	2%	P11–P36	15%	Medium	P1
28	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	1%	1%	P12–P35	12%	High	P7
29	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	0%	2%	P12–P35	12%	High	P24
30	Joey Logano Team Penske	0%	1%	P12–P35	12%	High	P18
31	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	1%	P14–P35	12%	High	P31
32	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P15–P36	13%	High	P4
33	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	0%	1%	P15–P36	13%	High	P26
34	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	0%	1%	P16–P36	14%	High	P34
35	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P18–P36	14%	High	P35
36	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	0%	P20–P36	10%	High	P30
37	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	0%	P21–P37	18%	High	P37
38	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	0%	0%	P24–P37	16%	High	P29
39	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P28–P37	16%	High	P23

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

20 laps

1	Ryan Blaney	+10
2	Ryan Preece	+9
3	Kyle Larson	+8
4	Ty Gibbs	+7
5	AJ Allmendinger	+6
6	Todd Gilliland	+5
7	Carson Hocevar	+4
8	Joey Logano	+3
9	Connor Zilisch	+2
10	William Byron	+1

Stage 2

20 laps

1	Ryan Preece	+10
2	Riley Herbst	+9
3	Chris Buescher	+8
4	AJ Allmendinger	+7
5	Ryan Blaney	+6
6	Carson Hocevar	+5
7	Daniel Suárez	+4
8	Ross Chastain	+3
9	Todd Gilliland	+2
10	Joey Logano	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Denny Hamlin

25.6% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Road Course

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Road Course

San Diego Street Course

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Road Course racing: left AND right turns — braking zones, tire management and racecraft separate the field. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

26%62%

Reddick

18%50%

Gibbs

8%24%

Blaney

7%22%

Buescher

4%13%

Larson

3%11%

Suárez

3%12%

Briscoe

3%10%

Jones

3%10%

Elliott

3%8%

Nemechek

2%6%

McDowell

2%5%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 4 exact, 8 of 39 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39
DEHAMLIN
TYREDDICK
TYGIBBS
RYBLANEY
CHBUESCHER
KYLARSON
DASUAREZ
CHBRISCOE
ERJONES
CHELLIOTT
JONEMECHEK
MIMCDOWELL
CHBELL
KEMAGNUSSEN
CAHOCEVAR
WIBYRON
SHGISBERGEN
AUCINDRIC
BUWALLACE
RIHERBST
JIJOHNSON
AJALLMENDINGER
AUHILL
RYPREECE
TOGILLILAND
RISTENHOUSE
COHEIM
ROCHASTAIN
AUDILLON
JOLOGANO
COCUSTER
ZASMITH
ALBOWMAN
BRKESELOWSKI
NOGRAGSON
TYDILLON
COZILISCH
JOBERRY
COWARE

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	DEHAMLIN	TYREDDICK	TYGIBBS	RYBLANEY	CHBUESCHER	KYLARSON	DASUAREZ	CHBRISCOE	ERJONES	CHELLIOTT	JONEMECHEK	MIMCDOWELL
DEHAMLIN	—	58	73	75	81	82	82	83	83	84	86	86
TYREDDICK	42	—	69	71	78	80	80	81	82	83	85	86
TYGIBBS	27	31	—	53	62	64	62	66	67	69	73	74
RYBLANEY	25	29	47	—	59	60	59	63	65	66	70	71
CHBUESCHER	19	22	38	41	—	53	51	55	57	59	66	66
KYLARSON	18	20	36	40	47	—	48	52	54	56	62	63
DASUAREZ	18	20	38	41	49	52	—	54	55	56	62	63
CHBRISCOE	17	19	34	37	45	48	46	—	52	53	60	60
ERJONES	17	18	33	35	43	46	45	48	—	52	58	58
CHELLIOTT	16	17	31	34	41	44	44	47	48	—	56	56
JONEMECHEK	14	15	27	30	34	38	38	40	42	44	—	50
MIMCDOWELL	14	14	26	29	34	37	37	40	42	44	50	—