Round 16: Great American Getaway 400 presented by VISITPA

Round 16

Great American Getaway 400 presented by VISITPA

IntermediateResult + Forecast

Venue

Pocono Raceway

United States

Race Format

IntermediateStages 30 / 65 / 65

3 stages, 160 laps.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Denny Hamlin is the clear favourite at 43% — nobody else clears 7%.

INTERMEDIATE

Pocono Raceway is an intermediate — the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule.

VERDICT

The forecast called the winner, had 2/3 of the podium — typical miss 7.6 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Tyler Reddick

23XI Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P28

Race Winner

Denny Hamlin

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P34

William Byron

Hendrick Motorsports

Win probability

0.0%

Range P6–P34

Predicted P17

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

43%77%

Reddick

5%22%

Blaney

7%26%

Suárez

6%21%

Jones

5%17%

Hocevar

5%19%

Briscoe

4%14%

Larson

3%12%

Buescher

2%9%

Gibbs

3%10%

Wallace

2%9%

Bell

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	43%	77%	P1–P34	12%	Low	P1
2	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	5%	22%	P2–P28	10%	Medium	P2
3	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	7%	26%	P2–P35	16%	Low	P10
4	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	6%	21%	P2–P35	16%	Low	P13
5	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	5%	17%	P2–P33	12%	Low	P6
6	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	5%	19%	P2–P35	15%	Low	P20
7	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	4%	14%	P3–P34	14%	Low	P12
8	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	3%	12%	P3–P32	12%	Low	P5
9	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	2%	9%	P4–P32	10%	Medium	P7
10	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	3%	10%	P4–P35	15%	Low	P9
11	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	2%	9%	P4–P35	18%	Low	P21
12	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	2%	7%	P5–P34	13%	Low	P26
13	Daniel Dye Live Fast Motorsports	2%	7%	P5–P35	13%	Low	P29
14	Joey Logano Team Penske	1%	6%	P5–P35	14%	Low	P34
15	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	2%	5%	P6–P34	13%	Medium	P16
16	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	1%	4%	P6–P33	12%	Medium	P11
17	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	1%	5%	P6–P34	14%	Medium	P3
18	Austin Cindric Team Penske	1%	4%	P7–P34	13%	Medium	P14
19	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	0%	3%	P8–P33	11%	Medium	P17
20	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	1%	3%	P8–P34	12%	Medium	P31
21	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	1%	3%	P8–P33	12%	Medium	P4
22	Casey Mears Beard Motorsports	0%	2%	P8–P35	17%	Medium	P36
23	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	2%	P9–P33	12%	Medium	P15
24	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	1%	2%	P11–P35	14%	Medium	P37
25	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	0%	2%	P11–P35	15%	Medium	P22
26	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P12–P34	12%	High	P19
27	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	1%	P12–P34	13%	High	P24
28	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	0%	2%	P12–P34	14%	High	P27
29	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	0%	1%	P12–P34	13%	High	P28
30	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	0%	2%	P12–P35	15%	High	P38
31	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P13–P34	11%	High	P18
32	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P15–P34	12%	High	P32
33	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	0%	1%	P14–P35	13%	High	P8
34	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P15–P35	15%	High	P35
35	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P17–P35	14%	High	P25
36	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	0%	1%	P19–P36	18%	High	P33
37	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P23–P36	18%	High	P30
38	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	0%	P29–P36	20%	High	P23

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

30 laps

1	Denny Hamlin	+10
2	Kyle Larson	+9
3	Ty Gibbs	+8
4	Chase Briscoe	+7
5	Chris Buescher	+6
6	Daniel Suárez	+5
7	William Byron	+4
8	Erik Jones	+3
9	Joey Logano	+2
10	Austin Hill	+0

Stage 2

65 laps

1	Todd Gilliland	+10
2	Chase Briscoe	+9
3	John H. Nemechek	+8
4	Erik Jones	+7
5	Ricky Stenhouse Jr	+6
6	Ross Chastain	+5
7	Carson Hocevar	+4
8	Daniel Suárez	+3
9	Denny Hamlin	+2
10	Chase Elliott	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Denny Hamlin

42.6% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Intermediate

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Intermediate

Pocono Raceway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Intermediate racing: the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

43%77%

Reddick

5%22%

Blaney

7%26%

Suárez

6%21%

Jones

5%17%

Hocevar

5%19%

Briscoe

4%14%

Larson

3%12%

Buescher

2%9%

Gibbs

3%10%

Wallace

2%9%

Bell

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 3 exact, 15 of 38 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38
DEHAMLIN
TYREDDICK
RYBLANEY
DASUAREZ
ERJONES
CAHOCEVAR
CHBRISCOE
KYLARSON
CHBUESCHER
TYGIBBS
BUWALLACE
CHBELL
DADYE
JOLOGANO
RIHERBST
CHELLIOTT
WIBYRON
AUCINDRIC
MIMCDOWELL
SHGISBERGEN
JONEMECHEK
CAMEARS
RISTENHOUSE
ZASMITH
AJALLMENDINGER
TOGILLILAND
COCUSTER
ALBOWMAN
RYPREECE
BRKESELOWSKI
AUHILL
TYDILLON
ROCHASTAIN
NOGRAGSON
AUDILLON
JOBERRY
COWARE
COZILISCH

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	DEHAMLIN	TYREDDICK	RYBLANEY	DASUAREZ	ERJONES	CAHOCEVAR	CHBRISCOE	KYLARSON	CHBUESCHER	TYGIBBS	BUWALLACE	CHBELL
DEHAMLIN	—	80	79	79	81	81	82	83	85	85	85	86
TYREDDICK	21	—	48	52	56	54	61	63	68	67	70	74
RYBLANEY	21	52	—	54	58	56	62	64	68	67	70	72
DASUAREZ	21	48	46	—	55	52	59	60	64	63	67	69
ERJONES	19	45	42	45	—	48	54	57	62	61	64	68
CAHOCEVAR	19	46	44	48	52	—	57	59	64	62	65	68
CHBRISCOE	18	39	38	41	46	43	—	52	57	57	60	64
KYLARSON	17	37	36	40	43	41	48	—	54	54	58	62
CHBUESCHER	15	32	32	36	38	36	43	46	—	49	53	58
TYGIBBS	16	33	33	37	39	38	43	46	51	—	54	58
BUWALLACE	15	30	30	33	36	35	40	42	47	46	—	53
CHBELL	14	27	28	31	32	32	36	38	42	42	47	—