Round 15: FireKeepers Casino 400

Round 15

FireKeepers Casino 400

IntermediateResult + Forecast

Venue

Michigan International Speedway

United States

Race Format

IntermediateStages 45 / 75 / 80

3 stages, 200 laps.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Tyler Reddick is the clear favourite at 31% — nobody else clears 26%.

INTERMEDIATE

Michigan International Speedway is an intermediate — the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 1/3 of the podium — typical miss 11.8 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Erik Jones

Legacy Motor Club

Win probability

0.0%

Range P5–P32

Predicted P11

Race Winner

Denny Hamlin

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P32

Predicted P2

Bubba Wallace

23XI Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P9–P35

Predicted P22

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

31%71%

Hamlin

26%65%

Bell

5%18%

Gibbs

5%17%

Blaney

5%18%

Elliott

3%12%

Gisbergen

2%10%

Suárez

3%12%

Hocevar

3%9%

Briscoe

2%8%

Jones

1%6%

2%5%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	31%	71%	P1–P8	9%	High	P35
2	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	26%	65%	P1–P32	11%	Low	P1
3	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	5%	18%	P2–P32	12%	Low	P31
4	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	5%	17%	P2–P34	14%	Low	P25
5	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	5%	18%	P2–P34	16%	Low	P8
6	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	3%	12%	P3–P32	11%	Low	P32
7	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	2%	10%	P3–P31	11%	Low	P30
8	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	3%	12%	P3–P34	16%	Low	P6
9	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	3%	9%	P4–P34	14%	Low	P5
10	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	2%	8%	P4–P34	14%	Low	P10
11	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	1%	6%	P5–P32	11%	Low	P2
12	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	2%	5%	P5–P30	11%	Medium	P29
13	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	2%	5%	P5–P33	13%	Low	P33
14	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	1%	5%	P6–P30	10%	Medium	P26
15	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	1%	4%	P6–P32	11%	Medium	P4
16	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	1%	4%	P6–P30	10%	Medium	P9
17	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	1%	3%	P7–P33	14%	Medium	P18
18	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	1%	2%	P8–P33	13%	Medium	P13
19	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	1%	2%	P8–P34	14%	Medium	P34
20	Joey Logano Team Penske	1%	2%	P8–P34	14%	Medium	P7
21	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	1%	2%	P9–P33	13%	Medium	P36
22	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	1%	2%	P9–P35	17%	Medium	P3
23	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	0%	2%	P10–P32	11%	High	P22
24	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	0%	2%	P10–P33	12%	High	P28
25	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	0%	2%	P11–P33	11%	High	P14
26	Austin Cindric Team Penske	0%	1%	P11–P34	13%	High	P11
27	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	2%	P11–P34	14%	High	P27
28	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P12–P33	11%	High	P24
29	JJ Yeley NY Racing Team	0%	1%	P12–P35	21%	High	P21
30	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	0%	1%	P13–P34	14%	High	P19
31	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P13–P34	14%	High	P17
32	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	1%	P17–P34	13%	High	P12
33	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	0%	0%	P18–P34	11%	High	P20
34	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	0%	0%	P19–P34	13%	High	P16
35	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	0%	0%	P23–P35	17%	High	P15
36	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P23–P35	17%	High	P23
37	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	0%	P26–P35	19%	High	P37

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

45 laps

1	Tyler Reddick	+10
2	Ty Gibbs	+9
3	Carson Hocevar	+8
4	Chase Elliott	+7
5	Bubba Wallace	+6
6	Zane Smith	+5
7	Kyle Larson	+4
8	Chris Buescher	+3
9	Riley Herbst	+2
10	Daniel Suárez	+1

Stage 2

75 laps

1	Chase Elliott	+10
2	Erik Jones	+9
3	Daniel Suárez	+8
4	Kyle Larson	+7
5	William Byron	+6
6	Christopher Bell	+5
7	Carson Hocevar	+4
8	Denny Hamlin	+3
9	Joey Logano	+2
10	Zane Smith	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Tyler Reddick

30.7% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Intermediate

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Intermediate

Michigan International Speedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Intermediate racing: the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

31%71%

Hamlin

26%65%

Bell

5%18%

Gibbs

5%17%

Blaney

5%18%

Elliott

3%12%

Gisbergen

2%10%

Suárez

3%12%

Hocevar

3%9%

Briscoe

2%8%

Jones

1%6%

2%5%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 3 exact, 8 of 37 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37
TYREDDICK
DEHAMLIN
CHBELL
TYGIBBS
RYBLANEY
CHELLIOTT
SHGISBERGEN
DASUAREZ
CAHOCEVAR
CHBRISCOE
ERJONES
RISTENHOUSE
ZASMITH
MIMCDOWELL
KYLARSON
CHBUESCHER
WIBYRON
RIHERBST
BRKESELOWSKI
JOLOGANO
AUDILLON
BUWALLACE
TOGILLILAND
RYPREECE
JONEMECHEK
AUCINDRIC
NOGRAGSON
TYDILLON
JJYELEY
ALBOWMAN
AJALLMENDINGER
COCUSTER
AUHILL
ROCHASTAIN
JOBERRY
COWARE
COZILISCH

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	TYREDDICK	DEHAMLIN	CHBELL	TYGIBBS	RYBLANEY	CHELLIOTT	SHGISBERGEN	DASUAREZ	CAHOCEVAR	CHBRISCOE	ERJONES	RISTENHOUSE
TYREDDICK	—	55	81	80	81	84	86	84	85	86	88	87
DEHAMLIN	45	—	78	78	77	81	82	81	83	84	85	86
CHBELL	19	22	—	52	52	59	62	59	64	66	69	73
TYGIBBS	20	22	48	—	51	58	59	57	62	63	67	70
RYBLANEY	19	23	48	49	—	57	59	58	62	64	67	70
CHELLIOTT	16	19	41	42	43	—	52	50	55	56	61	66
SHGISBERGEN	14	18	38	41	41	48	—	49	53	55	60	64
DASUAREZ	16	19	41	43	42	50	51	—	54	56	61	64
CAHOCEVAR	15	17	36	38	38	45	47	46	—	51	56	60
CHBRISCOE	14	16	34	37	36	44	45	44	49	—	55	59
ERJONES	12	15	31	33	33	39	40	39	44	45	—	54
RISTENHOUSE	13	14	27	30	30	34	36	36	40	41	46	—