Round 14: Cracker Barrel 400

Round 14

Cracker Barrel 400

IntermediateResult + Forecast

Venue

Nashville Superspeedway

United States

Race Format

IntermediateStages 90 / 95 / 115

3 stages, 300 laps.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Tyler Reddick is the clear favourite at 39% — nobody else clears 21%.

INTERMEDIATE

Nashville Superspeedway is an intermediate — the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 1/3 of the podium — typical miss 9.5 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Christopher Bell

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P4–P34

Predicted P6

Race Winner

Denny Hamlin

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P34

Predicted P2

Chase Briscoe

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P8–P34

Predicted P19

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

39%76%

Hamlin

21%57%

Suárez

6%24%

Gibbs

4%18%

Blaney

4%17%

Bell

2%10%

Buescher

2%9%

Byron

2%9%

Gisbergen

2%8%

Larson

1%7%

Keselowski

2%8%

Hocevar

1%6%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	39%	76%	P1–P7	9%	High	P6
2	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	21%	57%	P1–P34	11%	Low	P1
3	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	6%	24%	P2–P35	16%	Low	P19
4	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	4%	18%	P2–P34	13%	Low	P13
5	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	4%	17%	P2–P35	16%	Low	P8
6	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	2%	10%	P4–P34	12%	Low	P2
7	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	2%	9%	P4–P25	9%	High	P29
8	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	2%	9%	P4–P33	13%	Low	P30
9	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	2%	8%	P4–P31	11%	Medium	P5
10	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	1%	7%	P4–P33	11%	Low	P23
11	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	2%	8%	P4–P35	13%	Low	P34
12	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	1%	6%	P5–P35	14%	Low	P10
13	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	1%	5%	P5–P32	10%	Medium	P7
14	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	1%	4%	P6–P33	11%	Medium	P11
15	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	1%	4%	P6–P29	10%	High	P15
16	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	1%	4%	P6–P30	11%	Medium	P36
17	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	1%	4%	P6–P35	16%	Low	P32
18	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	1%	4%	P7–P34	13%	Medium	P9
19	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	1%	3%	P8–P34	13%	Medium	P3
20	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	1%	3%	P8–P34	13%	Medium	P33
21	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	1%	2%	P8–P33	11%	Medium	P4
22	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	1%	2%	P8–P34	13%	Medium	P35
23	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	0%	2%	P9–P34	13%	Medium	P17
24	Corey Heim 23XI Racing	0%	2%	P9–P36	17%	Medium	P25
25	Joey Logano Team Penske	0%	2%	P10–P34	13%	Medium	P14
26	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	1%	2%	P11–P34	11%	High	P20
27	Austin Cindric Team Penske	0%	2%	P11–P34	13%	High	P26
28	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	0%	1%	P11–P34	11%	High	P24
29	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P11–P34	13%	High	P18
30	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P14–P35	14%	High	P16
31	Chad Finchum Garage 66	0%	1%	P15–P36	18%	High	P28
32	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	0%	1%	P16–P35	12%	High	P37
33	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	1%	P17–P35	13%	High	P21
34	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P18–P35	11%	High	P12
35	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P19–P35	11%	High	P27
36	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	0%	0%	P23–P36	16%	High	P31
37	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	0%	P25–P36	17%	High	P38
38	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P27–P36	17%	High	P22

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

90 laps

1	AJ Allmendinger	+10
2	Kyle Larson	+9
3	Ryan Blaney	+8
4	Chase Elliott	+7
5	Tyler Reddick	+6
6	Bubba Wallace	+5
7	William Byron	+4
8	Chase Briscoe	+3
9	Riley Herbst	+2
10	Corey Heim	+0

Stage 2

95 laps

1	Daniel Suárez	+10
2	Alex Bowman	+9
3	Ricky Stenhouse Jr	+8
4	Austin Cindric	+7
5	Denny Hamlin	+6
6	Michael McDowell	+5
7	William Byron	+4
8	Christopher Bell	+3
9	Chase Briscoe	+2
10	Brad Keselowski	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Tyler Reddick

39.3% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Intermediate

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Intermediate

Nashville Superspeedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Intermediate racing: the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

39%76%

Hamlin

21%57%

Suárez

6%24%

Gibbs

4%18%

Blaney

4%17%

Bell

2%10%

Buescher

2%9%

Byron

2%9%

Gisbergen

2%8%

Larson

1%7%

Keselowski

2%8%

Hocevar

1%6%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 1 exact, 9 of 38 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38
TYREDDICK
DEHAMLIN
DASUAREZ
TYGIBBS
RYBLANEY
CHBELL
CHBUESCHER
WIBYRON
SHGISBERGEN
KYLARSON
BRKESELOWSKI
CAHOCEVAR
CHELLIOTT
ERJONES
MIMCDOWELL
RYPREECE
BUWALLACE
ZASMITH
CHBRISCOE
ALBOWMAN
RISTENHOUSE
AJALLMENDINGER
RIHERBST
COHEIM
JOLOGANO
TOGILLILAND
AUCINDRIC
JONEMECHEK
AUDILLON
NOGRAGSON
CHFINCHUM
ROCHASTAIN
COCUSTER
TYDILLON
AUHILL
JOBERRY
COZILISCH
COWARE

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	TYREDDICK	DEHAMLIN	DASUAREZ	TYGIBBS	RYBLANEY	CHBELL	CHBUESCHER	WIBYRON	SHGISBERGEN	KYLARSON	BRKESELOWSKI	CAHOCEVAR
TYREDDICK	—	63	81	83	84	87	87	87	88	88	88	89
DEHAMLIN	37	—	71	75	76	81	81	81	82	82	82	84
DASUAREZ	19	29	—	56	57	66	68	67	70	71	69	72
TYGIBBS	17	26	44	—	52	61	63	62	66	67	65	69
RYBLANEY	16	24	43	48	—	60	61	60	64	64	62	66
CHBELL	13	19	34	39	40	—	52	51	56	55	54	59
CHBUESCHER	13	19	32	37	39	48	—	49	54	53	52	58
WIBYRON	13	19	33	38	40	49	51	—	54	55	52	59
SHGISBERGEN	12	18	30	34	36	44	46	46	—	49	49	54
KYLARSON	12	18	29	33	36	45	47	45	51	—	49	54
BRKESELOWSKI	12	18	31	35	38	46	48	48	51	51	—	56
CAHOCEVAR	11	16	28	31	34	41	42	42	46	46	44	—