Round 13: Coca-Cola 600 — RaceIQ NASCAR

Round 13

Coca-Cola 600

IntermediateResult + Forecast

Venue

Charlotte Motor Speedway

United States

Race Format

IntermediateStages 100 / 100 / 100

3 stages, 300 laps.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Tyler Reddick is the clear favourite at 29% — nobody else clears 15%.

INTERMEDIATE

Charlotte Motor Speedway is an intermediate — the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 1/3 of the podium — typical miss 11.1 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Christopher Bell

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P8–P35

Predicted P20

Race Winner

Daniel Suárez

Spire Motorsports

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P36

Predicted P6

Denny Hamlin

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P33

Predicted P2

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

29%67%

Hamlin

15%41%

Buescher

9%28%

Elliott

8%25%

Preece

3%13%

Suárez

4%13%

Hocevar

3%10%

Briscoe

3%9%

Gibbs

3%10%

Blaney

2%10%

Keselowski

2%8%

Cindric

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	29%	67%	P1–P9	9%	High	P4
2	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	15%	41%	P1–P33	11%	Low	P3
3	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	9%	28%	P2–P16	9%	High	P30
4	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	8%	25%	P2–P17	9%	High	P37
5	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	3%	13%	P3–P25	10%	High	P33
6	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	4%	13%	P3–P36	16%	Low	P1
7	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	3%	10%	P4–P35	14%	Low	P23
8	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	3%	9%	P4–P34	12%	Low	P34
9	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	3%	10%	P4–P35	13%	Low	P6
10	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	2%	10%	P3–P36	16%	Low	P7
11	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	2%	8%	P4–P35	13%	Low	P15
12	Austin Cindric Team Penske	2%	7%	P4–P35	12%	Low	P38
13	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	2%	6%	P5–P35	12%	Low	P9
14	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	1%	5%	P5–P34	11%	Low	P11
15	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	2%	6%	P5–P37	16%	Low	P22
16	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	1%	5%	P6–P34	12%	Low	P32
17	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	1%	4%	P7–P34	11%	Medium	P13
18	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	1%	3%	P8–P31	9%	High	P14
19	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	1%	3%	P8–P35	13%	Medium	P17
20	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	1%	3%	P8–P35	12%	Medium	P2
21	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	1%	3%	P8–P35	12%	Medium	P21
22	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	1%	3%	P8–P34	11%	Medium	P5
23	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	1%	2%	P9–P34	11%	Medium	P26
24	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	1%	2%	P9–P35	13%	Medium	P18
25	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	1%	2%	P10–P35	12%	Medium	P10
26	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	0%	2%	P10–P34	11%	Medium	P35
27	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	2%	P11–P36	16%	Medium	P39
28	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	1%	2%	P11–P35	11%	Medium	P20
29	Katherine Legge Live Fast Motorsports	0%	1%	P12–P35	12%	High	P31
30	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	1%	P12–P35	11%	High	P12
31	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P14–P36	14%	High	P24
32	Corey Heim 23XI Racing	0%	1%	P14–P37	17%	High	P19
33	Timmy Hill Garage 66	0%	1%	P15–P36	15%	High	P36
34	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P19–P36	11%	High	P25
35	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	0%	0%	P20–P36	10%	High	P27
36	Joey Logano Team Penske	0%	0%	P20–P36	13%	High	P8
37	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	0%	P22–P36	12%	High	P16
38	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	0%	0%	P21–P37	16%	High	P29
39	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P28–P37	17%	High	P28

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

100 laps

1	Kyle Larson	+10
2	Chase Briscoe	+9
3	Tyler Reddick	+8
4	Denny Hamlin	+7
5	Erik Jones	+6
6	Ryan Blaney	+5
7	Ty Gibbs	+4
8	Ryan Preece	+3
9	Ricky Stenhouse Jr	+2
10	Shane Van Gisbergen	+1

Stage 2

100 laps

1	Denny Hamlin	+10
2	Ty Gibbs	+9
3	Chase Briscoe	+8
4	Tyler Reddick	+7
5	Kyle Larson	+6
6	Christopher Bell	+5
7	Ryan Blaney	+4
8	Chris Buescher	+3
9	Shane Van Gisbergen	+2
10	Ricky Stenhouse Jr	+1

Stage 3

100 laps

1	Christopher Bell	+10
2	Denny Hamlin	+9
3	Ty Gibbs	+8
4	Chase Briscoe	+7
5	Kyle Larson	+6
6	Tyler Reddick	+5
7	Shane Van Gisbergen	+4
8	Brad Keselowski	+3
9	Ryan Blaney	+2
10	Ricky Stenhouse Jr	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Tyler Reddick

29.5% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Intermediate

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Intermediate

Charlotte Motor Speedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Intermediate racing: the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

29%67%

Hamlin

15%41%

Buescher

9%28%

Elliott

8%25%

Preece

3%13%

Suárez

4%13%

Hocevar

3%10%

Briscoe

3%9%

Gibbs

3%10%

Blaney

2%10%

Keselowski

2%8%

Cindric

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 1 exact, 10 of 39 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39
TYREDDICK
DEHAMLIN
CHBUESCHER
CHELLIOTT
RYPREECE
DASUAREZ
CAHOCEVAR
CHBRISCOE
TYGIBBS
RYBLANEY
BRKESELOWSKI
AUCINDRIC
WIBYRON
SHGISBERGEN
BUWALLACE
AUDILLON
ERJONES
MIMCDOWELL
ALBOWMAN
CHBELL
RIHERBST
KYLARSON
JONEMECHEK
AJALLMENDINGER
ZASMITH
ROCHASTAIN
COZILISCH
TOGILLILAND
KALEGGE
RISTENHOUSE
NOGRAGSON
COHEIM
TIHILL
TYDILLON
AUHILL
JOLOGANO
COCUSTER
JOBERRY
COWARE

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	TYREDDICK	DEHAMLIN	CHBUESCHER	CHELLIOTT	RYPREECE	DASUAREZ	CAHOCEVAR	CHBRISCOE	TYGIBBS	RYBLANEY	BRKESELOWSKI	AUCINDRIC
TYREDDICK	—	65	73	75	83	83	85	85	85	85	86	86
DEHAMLIN	35	—	59	62	73	74	78	77	77	76	79	79
CHBUESCHER	27	41	—	52	68	69	71	73	73	72	75	77
CHELLIOTT	25	38	48	—	64	65	69	70	70	69	73	75
RYPREECE	17	27	32	36	—	52	56	57	57	55	61	63
DASUAREZ	17	26	31	35	48	—	54	55	56	54	58	59
CAHOCEVAR	15	22	29	31	44	46	—	51	51	50	55	57
CHBRISCOE	15	23	27	30	43	45	49	—	50	50	54	56
TYGIBBS	15	23	27	30	43	45	49	50	—	49	54	56
RYBLANEY	15	24	28	31	45	46	50	50	51	—	54	56
BRKESELOWSKI	14	21	25	28	40	42	45	46	46	46	—	53
AUCINDRIC	14	21	23	25	37	41	43	44	44	44	47	—