Round 12: Go Bowling at The Glen

Round 12

Go Bowling at The Glen

Road CourseResult + Forecast

Venue

Watkins Glen International

United States

Race Format

Road CourseStages 20 / 30 / 50

3 stages, 100 laps.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Tyler Reddick is the clear favourite at 29% — nobody else clears 13%.

ROAD COURSE

Watkins Glen International is a road course — left AND right turns — braking zones, tire management and racecraft separate the field.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 0/3 of the podium — typical miss 10.8 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Michael McDowell

Spire Motorsports

Win probability

0.0%

Range P9–P33

Predicted P21

Race Winner

Shane Van Gisbergen

Trackhouse Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P5–P34

Predicted P14

Ty Gibbs

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P4–P34

Predicted P9

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

29%66%

Elliott

13%42%

Hamlin

12%36%

Buescher

8%24%

Preece

4%13%

Byron

3%10%

Hocevar

3%10%

Blaney

3%9%

Gibbs

3%9%

Keselowski

3%8%

Suárez

3%8%

Wallace

2%8%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	29%	66%	P1–P8	8%	High	P5
2	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	13%	42%	P1–P14	9%	High	P24
3	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	12%	36%	P1–P32	11%	Low	P16
4	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	8%	24%	P2–P17	8%	High	P12
5	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	4%	13%	P3–P25	10%	High	P14
6	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	3%	10%	P3–P33	12%	Low	P36
7	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	3%	10%	P4–P35	14%	Low	P28
8	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	3%	9%	P4–P35	15%	Low	P11
9	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	3%	9%	P4–P34	13%	Low	P3
10	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	3%	8%	P4–P34	13%	Low	P30
11	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	3%	8%	P4–P35	15%	Low	P13
12	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	2%	8%	P4–P36	16%	Low	P29
13	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	2%	7%	P5–P33	11%	Low	P21
14	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	2%	6%	P5–P34	11%	Low	P1
15	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	1%	4%	P7–P33	11%	Medium	P23
16	Austin Cindric Team Penske	1%	3%	P8–P34	11%	Medium	P9
17	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	1%	2%	P8–P34	12%	Medium	P4
18	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	1%	3%	P8–P34	12%	Medium	P26
19	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	1%	2%	P8–P34	13%	Medium	P7
20	Katherine Legge Live Fast Motorsports	1%	2%	P9–P34	12%	Medium	P35
21	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	0%	2%	P9–P33	9%	Medium	P2
22	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	1%	2%	P9–P35	13%	Medium	P25
23	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	1%	2%	P9–P34	11%	Medium	P19
24	Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing	1%	2%	P9–P34	10%	Medium	P8
25	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	1%	2%	P9–P34	11%	Medium	P6
26	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	1%	2%	P10–P33	11%	High	P27
27	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	1%	2%	P10–P34	11%	Medium	P31
28	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	1%	2%	P11–P34	11%	High	P10
29	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	0%	2%	P11–P35	12%	Medium	P18
30	Josh Bilicki Garage 66	1%	2%	P10–P36	18%	Medium	P34
31	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P12–P34	11%	High	P17
32	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	1%	P12–P35	15%	High	P20
33	Joey Logano Team Penske	0%	1%	P12–P35	13%	High	P38
34	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P13–P35	14%	High	P22
35	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P13–P35	11%	High	P33
36	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	0%	0%	P21–P36	16%	High	P32
37	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	0%	P26–P36	12%	High	P15
38	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P26–P36	16%	High	P37

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

20 laps

1	Ross Chastain	+10
2	Joey Logano	+9
3	Ryan Blaney	+8
4	Austin Cindric	+7
5	AJ Allmendinger	+6
6	John H. Nemechek	+5
7	Christopher Bell	+4
8	Shane Van Gisbergen	+3
9	Riley Herbst	+2
10	Michael McDowell	+1

Stage 2

30 laps

1	Shane Van Gisbergen	+10
2	Tyler Reddick	+9
3	Ty Gibbs	+8
4	Austin Dillon	+7
5	Kyle Busch	+6
6	Chris Buescher	+5
7	Austin Cindric	+4
8	Connor Zilisch	+3
9	Chase Briscoe	+2
10	Bubba Wallace	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Tyler Reddick

28.6% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Road Course

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Road Course

Watkins Glen International

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Road Course racing: left AND right turns — braking zones, tire management and racecraft separate the field. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

29%66%

Elliott

13%42%

Hamlin

12%36%

Buescher

8%24%

Preece

4%13%

Byron

3%10%

Hocevar

3%10%

Blaney

3%9%

Gibbs

3%9%

Keselowski

3%8%

Suárez

3%8%

Wallace

2%8%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 0 exact, 6 of 38 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38
TYREDDICK
CHELLIOTT
DEHAMLIN
CHBUESCHER
RYPREECE
WIBYRON
CAHOCEVAR
RYBLANEY
TYGIBBS
BRKESELOWSKI
DASUAREZ
BUWALLACE
CHBELL
SHGISBERGEN
KYLARSON
AUCINDRIC
CHBRISCOE
RIHERBST
AJALLMENDINGER
KALEGGE
MIMCDOWELL
ALBOWMAN
ERJONES
KYBUSCH
AUDILLON
ROCHASTAIN
RISTENHOUSE
JONEMECHEK
ZASMITH
JOBILICKI
TOGILLILAND
COZILISCH
JOLOGANO
NOGRAGSON
TYDILLON
JOBERRY
COCUSTER
COWARE

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	TYREDDICK	CHELLIOTT	DEHAMLIN	CHBUESCHER	RYPREECE	WIBYRON	CAHOCEVAR	RYBLANEY	TYGIBBS	BRKESELOWSKI	DASUAREZ	BUWALLACE
TYREDDICK	—	66	69	76	83	85	86	86	87	87	87	87
CHELLIOTT	34	—	53	62	73	78	77	78	79	79	79	79
DEHAMLIN	31	47	—	60	71	75	75	76	77	77	78	78
CHBUESCHER	24	38	40	—	65	69	70	71	72	72	72	73
RYPREECE	17	27	29	35	—	54	56	56	60	60	59	59
WIBYRON	15	22	25	32	46	—	51	53	55	55	55	55
CAHOCEVAR	14	23	25	30	44	49	—	49	52	53	53	54
RYBLANEY	14	22	24	29	44	48	51	—	52	53	53	54
TYGIBBS	14	21	23	28	41	45	48	48	—	50	50	51
BRKESELOWSKI	13	21	23	28	40	45	47	47	50	—	51	50
DASUAREZ	13	21	22	28	41	45	47	47	50	49	—	51
BUWALLACE	13	21	22	27	41	45	46	46	49	50	49	—