Round 11: Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY

Round 11

Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY

IntermediateResult + Forecast

Venue

Texas Motor Speedway

United States

Race Format

IntermediateStages 80 / 85 / 102

3 stages, 267 laps.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Tyler Reddick is the clear favourite at 28% — nobody else clears 14%.

INTERMEDIATE

Texas Motor Speedway is an intermediate — the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 1/3 of the podium — typical miss 8.6 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Denny Hamlin

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P33

Race Winner

Chase Elliott

Hendrick Motorsports

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P31

Predicted P4

Alex Bowman

Hendrick Motorsports

Win probability

0.0%

Range P12–P34

Predicted P25

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

28%64%

Hamlin

14%40%

Buescher

9%28%

Elliott

10%31%

Gibbs

4%15%

Preece

4%14%

Hocevar

5%16%

Keselowski

3%12%

Bell

3%9%

Briscoe

2%8%

Cindric

2%7%

Larson

1%6%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	28%	64%	P1–P9	9%	High	P4
2	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	14%	40%	P1–P33	11%	Low	P2
3	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	9%	28%	P2–P15	9%	High	P5
4	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	10%	31%	P2–P31	10%	Low	P1
5	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	4%	15%	P3–P33	13%	Low	P36
6	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	4%	14%	P3–P30	10%	Medium	P14
7	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	5%	16%	P3–P35	14%	Low	P7
8	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	3%	12%	P3–P35	14%	Low	P13
9	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	3%	9%	P4–P33	11%	Low	P38
10	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	2%	8%	P4–P34	13%	Low	P23
11	Austin Cindric Team Penske	2%	7%	P5–P33	12%	Medium	P15
12	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	1%	6%	P5–P33	11%	Medium	P34
13	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	2%	6%	P5–P34	13%	Low	P8
14	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	2%	7%	P5–P35	16%	Low	P6
15	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	1%	5%	P6–P35	16%	Low	P10
16	Corey Heim 23XI Racing	1%	5%	P7–P35	15%	Medium	P31
17	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	1%	4%	P6–P36	17%	Low	P9
18	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	1%	3%	P7–P33	11%	Medium	P26
19	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	1%	2%	P9–P33	11%	Medium	P32
20	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	1%	3%	P9–P34	11%	Medium	P12
21	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	1%	2%	P9–P34	13%	Medium	P22
22	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	0%	2%	P9–P34	12%	Medium	P18
23	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	1%	2%	P10–P34	11%	Medium	P19
24	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	0%	1%	P12–P34	13%	High	P11
25	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	1%	2%	P12–P34	13%	High	P3
26	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P12–P35	14%	Medium	P25
27	Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P13–P34	10%	High	P20
28	Joey Logano Team Penske	0%	1%	P13–P35	13%	High	P37
29	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P13–P35	14%	High	P28
30	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	0%	1%	P14–P34	11%	High	P17
31	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	0%	1%	P14–P34	11%	High	P21
32	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	0%	1%	P14–P34	10%	High	P27
33	Chad Finchum Garage 66	0%	1%	P14–P36	19%	High	P33
34	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	0%	P18–P35	11%	High	P24
35	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	0%	P19–P36	16%	High	P16
36	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	0%	0%	P20–P36	17%	High	P29
37	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	0%	P25–P36	13%	High	P35
38	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P27–P36	17%	High	P30

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

80 laps

1	Erik Jones	+10
2	Carson Hocevar	+9
3	Ricky Stenhouse Jr	+8
4	Ty Gibbs	+7
5	Chase Briscoe	+6
6	Kyle Busch	+5
7	AJ Allmendinger	+4
8	Chase Elliott	+3
9	William Byron	+2
10	Denny Hamlin	+1

Stage 2

85 laps

1	Chase Elliott	+10
2	Tyler Reddick	+9
3	Brad Keselowski	+8
4	Denny Hamlin	+7
5	Ryan Preece	+6
6	Daniel Suárez	+5
7	Chris Buescher	+4
8	Riley Herbst	+3
9	Carson Hocevar	+2
10	Alex Bowman	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Tyler Reddick

27.7% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Intermediate

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Intermediate

Texas Motor Speedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Intermediate racing: the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

28%64%

Hamlin

14%40%

Buescher

9%28%

Elliott

10%31%

Gibbs

4%15%

Preece

4%14%

Hocevar

5%16%

Keselowski

3%12%

Bell

3%9%

Briscoe

2%8%

Cindric

2%7%

Larson

1%6%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 3 exact, 10 of 38 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38
TYREDDICK
DEHAMLIN
CHBUESCHER
CHELLIOTT
TYGIBBS
RYPREECE
CAHOCEVAR
BRKESELOWSKI
CHBELL
CHBRISCOE
AUCINDRIC
KYLARSON
WIBYRON
DASUAREZ
RYBLANEY
COHEIM
BUWALLACE
ROCHASTAIN
TOGILLILAND
ERJONES
ZASMITH
AUDILLON
RISTENHOUSE
RIHERBST
ALBOWMAN
AJALLMENDINGER
KYBUSCH
JOLOGANO
NOGRAGSON
SHGISBERGEN
JONEMECHEK
MIMCDOWELL
CHFINCHUM
TYDILLON
COZILISCH
JOBERRY
COCUSTER
COWARE

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	TYREDDICK	DEHAMLIN	CHBUESCHER	CHELLIOTT	TYGIBBS	RYPREECE	CAHOCEVAR	BRKESELOWSKI	CHBELL	CHBRISCOE	AUCINDRIC	KYLARSON
TYREDDICK	—	65	72	71	81	81	80	83	85	86	87	87
DEHAMLIN	35	—	58	56	71	72	70	74	79	78	79	81
CHBUESCHER	28	42	—	49	66	67	64	70	75	76	79	79
CHELLIOTT	30	44	51	—	66	66	65	70	74	75	78	78
TYGIBBS	19	29	34	34	—	51	50	55	62	62	65	68
RYPREECE	19	28	33	34	49	—	48	54	59	61	64	66
CAHOCEVAR	20	30	36	35	50	52	—	56	62	62	65	67
BRKESELOWSKI	17	26	30	30	45	46	44	—	57	57	60	62
CHBELL	15	21	25	26	38	41	38	43	—	50	55	57
CHBRISCOE	14	22	24	25	38	39	38	43	50	—	53	57
AUCINDRIC	13	21	21	23	35	36	35	40	45	47	—	53
KYLARSON	13	19	21	22	32	34	33	38	43	43	47	—