Round 10: Jack Link's 500

Round 10

Jack Link's 500

SuperspeedwayResult + Forecast

Venue

Talladega Superspeedway

United States

Race Format

SuperspeedwayStages 98 / 45 / 45

3 stages, 188 laps.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Tyler Reddick is the clear favourite at 27% — nobody else clears 8%.

SUPERSPEEDWAY

Talladega Superspeedway is a superspeedway — pack racing in the draft — anyone in the lead pack can win, and one wrong move collects half the field.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 0/3 of the podium — typical miss 14.2 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Chris Buescher

RFK Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P36

Predicted P4

Race Winner

Carson Hocevar

Spire Motorsports

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P38

Predicted P12

Alex Bowman

Hendrick Motorsports

Win probability

0.0%

Range P21–P38

Predicted P40

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

27%60%

Hamlin

8%26%

Elliott

6%20%

Buescher

5%14%

Keselowski

5%18%

Briscoe

4%15%

Preece

4%13%

Gibbs

4%13%

Larson

4%12%

Blaney

4%14%

Wallace

4%13%

Hocevar

3%11%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	27%	60%	P1–P36	14%	Low	P14
2	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	8%	26%	P2–P37	16%	Low	P15
3	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	6%	20%	P2–P36	15%	Low	P4
4	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	5%	14%	P3–P36	14%	Medium	P2
5	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	5%	18%	P2–P37	19%	Low	P31
6	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	4%	15%	P3–P37	18%	Low	P29
7	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	4%	13%	P3–P37	15%	Low	P18
8	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	4%	13%	P3–P37	17%	Low	P34
9	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	4%	12%	P3–P36	15%	Medium	P40
10	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	4%	14%	P3–P38	20%	Low	P37
11	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	4%	13%	P3–P38	21%	Low	P36
12	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	3%	11%	P3–P38	19%	Low	P1
13	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	2%	8%	P4–P37	17%	Medium	P35
14	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	2%	8%	P4–P38	21%	Low	P12
15	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	2%	6%	P5–P36	16%	Medium	P17
16	Joey Logano Team Penske	2%	5%	P6–P37	17%	Medium	P39
17	Jesse Love Richard Childress Racing	1%	4%	P7–P38	20%	Medium	P27
18	Joey Gase NY Racing Team	1%	4%	P7–P37	19%	Medium	P30
19	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	1%	3%	P7–P37	16%	Medium	P7
20	Daniel Dye Live Fast Motorsports	1%	3%	P8–P38	20%	Medium	P24
21	Austin Cindric Team Penske	1%	3%	P8–P37	17%	Medium	P8
22	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	1%	3%	P9–P37	16%	Medium	P23
23	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	1%	2%	P9–P37	18%	Medium	P5
24	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	1%	2%	P9–P37	16%	Medium	P20
25	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	1%	2%	P11–P36	15%	High	P32
26	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	1%	2%	P10–P38	19%	Medium	P16
27	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	0%	2%	P12–P37	18%	High	P25
28	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	1%	2%	P12–P37	16%	High	P11
29	Casey Mears Beard Motorsports	1%	2%	P11–P38	20%	Medium	—
30	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	0%	1%	P13–P37	16%	High	P22
31	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	1%	2%	P12–P37	17%	High	P19
32	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P13–P38	19%	High	P9
33	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	1%	P14–P37	16%	High	P6
34	Chad Finchum Garage 66	0%	1%	P14–P39	26%	High	P28
35	Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P17–P37	15%	High	P10
36	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P17–P37	16%	High	P13
37	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	1%	P18–P37	17%	High	P38
38	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	0%	0%	P19–P38	21%	High	P33
39	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	1%	P20–P38	23%	High	P26
40	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	0%	1%	P21–P38	18%	High	P3
41	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P25–P38	22%	High	P21

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

98 laps

1	Ryan Preece	+10
2	Brad Keselowski	+9
3	Joey Logano	+8
4	Chris Buescher	+7
5	Ryan Blaney	+6
6	Josh Berry	+5
7	Tyler Reddick	+4
8	Noah Gragson	+3
9	Todd Gilliland	+2
10	Ross Chastain	+1

Stage 2

45 laps

1	Ross Chastain	+10
2	Christopher Bell	+9
3	Chris Buescher	+8
4	Ricky Stenhouse Jr	+7
5	Todd Gilliland	+6
6	Ryan Preece	+5
7	Cody Ware	+4
8	Alex Bowman	+3
9	Chase Elliott	+2
10	Zane Smith	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Tyler Reddick

26.8% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Superspeedway

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Superspeedway

Talladega Superspeedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Superspeedway racing: pack racing in the draft — anyone in the lead pack can win, and one wrong move collects half the field. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

27%60%

Hamlin

8%26%

Elliott

6%20%

Buescher

5%14%

Keselowski

5%18%

Briscoe

4%15%

Preece

4%13%

Gibbs

4%13%

Larson

4%12%

Blaney

4%14%

Wallace

4%13%

Hocevar

3%11%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 0 exact, 7 of 40 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41
TYREDDICK
DEHAMLIN
CHELLIOTT
CHBUESCHER
BRKESELOWSKI
CHBRISCOE
RYPREECE
TYGIBBS
KYLARSON
RYBLANEY
BUWALLACE
CAHOCEVAR
WIBYRON
DASUAREZ
CHBELL
JOLOGANO
JELOVE
JOGASE
ROCHASTAIN
DADYE
AUCINDRIC
ERJONES
ZASMITH
SHGISBERGEN
MIMCDOWELL
AJALLMENDINGER
RIHERBST
TOGILLILAND
CAMEARS
JONEMECHEK
AUDILLON
NOGRAGSON
RISTENHOUSE
CHFINCHUM
KYBUSCH
TYDILLON
COCUSTER
JOBERRY
COZILISCH
ALBOWMAN
COWARE

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	TYREDDICK	DEHAMLIN	CHELLIOTT	CHBUESCHER	BRKESELOWSKI	CHBRISCOE	RYPREECE	TYGIBBS	KYLARSON	RYBLANEY	BUWALLACE	CAHOCEVAR
TYREDDICK	—	70	73	77	76	76	78	78	78	78	79	80
DEHAMLIN	30	—	54	61	57	60	63	62	64	62	64	65
CHELLIOTT	27	46	—	57	55	57	59	59	62	59	61	63
CHBUESCHER	23	39	43	—	48	49	53	52	55	53	55	58
BRKESELOWSKI	24	43	45	52	—	52	54	54	57	55	57	58
CHBRISCOE	24	40	43	51	48	—	53	53	55	54	55	57
RYPREECE	22	38	41	47	46	47	—	50	53	51	53	54
TYGIBBS	22	38	41	48	46	47	50	—	53	52	52	55
KYLARSON	22	36	38	45	43	45	47	47	—	49	49	52
RYBLANEY	22	38	41	47	45	46	49	49	51	—	51	55
BUWALLACE	21	36	39	45	43	45	47	48	51	49	—	51
CAHOCEVAR	20	35	37	42	42	43	46	45	48	45	49	—