Round 1: DAYTONA 500 — RaceIQ NASCAR

Round 01

DAYTONA 500

SuperspeedwayResult + Forecast

Venue

Daytona International Speedway

United States

Race Format

SuperspeedwayStages 65 / 65 / 70

3 stages, 200 laps.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Wide-open race: Kyle Larson leads the win market at just 8%, with Chase Elliott right behind on 6%.

SUPERSPEEDWAY

Daytona International Speedway is a superspeedway — pack racing in the draft — anyone in the lead pack can win, and one wrong move collects half the field.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 0/3 of the podium — typical miss 15.0 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Ricky Stenhouse Jr

HYAK Motorsports

Win probability

0.0%

Range P8–P40

Predicted P30

Race Winner

Tyler Reddick

23XI Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P4–P39

Predicted P11

Joey Logano

Team Penske

Win probability

0.0%

Range P5–P40

Predicted P24

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Larson

8%23%

Elliott

6%18%

Allgaier

5%15%

Bell

4%14%

Preece

4%11%

Gibbs

3%11%

Buescher

3%9%

McDowell

3%8%

Zilisch

4%11%

Smith

3%10%

Reddick

3%8%

Blaney

3%10%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	8%	23%	P2–P40	15%	Low	P16
2	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	6%	18%	P2–P40	15%	Low	P4
3	Justin Allgaier Hendrick Motorsports	5%	15%	P2–P40	18%	Low	P38
4	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	4%	14%	P3–P40	16%	Low	P35
5	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	4%	11%	P3–P40	16%	Low	P25
6	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	3%	11%	P3–P40	17%	Low	P23
7	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	3%	9%	P4–P39	14%	Medium	P7
8	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	3%	8%	P4–P40	15%	Medium	P22
9	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	4%	11%	P3–P42	23%	Low	P33
10	Chandler Smith Front Row Motorsports	3%	10%	P3–P42	22%	Low	—
11	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	3%	8%	P4–P39	14%	Medium	P1
12	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	3%	10%	P3–P42	20%	Low	P27
13	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	3%	10%	P4–P41	19%	Low	P5
14	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	3%	8%	P4–P41	17%	Low	P21
15	Corey Heim 23XI Racing	3%	9%	P4–P42	22%	Low	P28
16	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	2%	7%	P5–P41	17%	Medium	P31
17	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	3%	8%	P4–P40	17%	Medium	P20
18	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	3%	8%	P4–P42	20%	Low	P9
19	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	2%	6%	P5–P41	17%	Medium	P30
20	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	2%	6%	P5–P40	17%	Medium	P40
21	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	2%	7%	P5–P41	17%	Medium	P24
22	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	2%	7%	P5–P40	15%	Medium	P39
23	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	2%	6%	P5–P41	17%	Medium	P36
24	Joey Logano Team Penske	2%	6%	P5–P40	17%	Medium	P3
25	Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing	2%	6%	P6–P40	15%	Medium	P15
26	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	2%	6%	P5–P42	21%	Low	P13
27	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	2%	5%	P7–P40	16%	High	P37
28	Jimmie Johnson Legacy Motor Club	2%	6%	P6–P42	21%	Medium	P29
29	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	2%	5%	P6–P40	17%	Medium	P12
30	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	1%	4%	P8–P40	16%	High	P2
31	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	1%	4%	P7–P40	16%	High	P26
32	Anthony Alfredo Hendrick Motorsports	1%	4%	P8–P42	21%	Medium	—
33	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	1%	3%	P10–P41	16%	High	P14
34	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	1%	3%	P11–P42	21%	High	P10
35	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	1%	3%	P11–P41	17%	High	P6
36	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	1%	3%	P11–P42	20%	High	P18
37	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	1%	2%	P12–P41	19%	High	P19
38	Austin Cindric Team Penske	1%	2%	P14–P40	16%	High	P34
39	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	0%	2%	P13–P41	17%	High	P8
40	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	1%	2%	P14–P41	19%	High	P11
41	BJ McLeod Live Fast Motorsports	1%	2%	P13–P42	25%	High	P41
42	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	1%	2%	P14–P42	22%	High	P17
43	Casey Mears Beard Motorsports	0%	1%	P17–P42	20%	High	P32
44	Corey LaJoie RFK Racing	0%	1%	P18–P42	23%	High	—
45	JJ Yeley NY Racing Team	0%	1%	P23–P42	23%	High	—

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

65 laps

1	Zane Smith	+10
2	Austin Cindric	+9
3	Ryan Blaney	+8
4	Carson Hocevar	+7
5	Daniel Suárez	+6
6	Chris Buescher	+5
7	Michael McDowell	+4
8	Ryan Preece	+3
9	Alex Bowman	+2
10	Noah Gragson	+1

Stage 2

65 laps

1	Bubba Wallace	+10
2	Ryan Blaney	+9
3	John H. Nemechek	+8
4	Kyle Busch	+7
5	Riley Herbst	+6
6	Corey Heim	+0
7	Chris Buescher	+4
8	Tyler Reddick	+3
9	Joey Logano	+2
10	Daniel Suárez	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Kyle Larson

7.9% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Superspeedway

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Superspeedway

Daytona International Speedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Superspeedway racing: pack racing in the draft — anyone in the lead pack can win, and one wrong move collects half the field. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Larson

8%23%

Elliott

6%18%

Allgaier

5%15%

Bell

4%14%

Preece

4%11%

Gibbs

3%11%

Buescher

3%9%

McDowell

3%8%

Zilisch

4%11%

Smith

3%10%

Reddick

3%8%

Blaney

3%10%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 2 exact, 6 of 41 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42	43	44	45
KYLARSON
CHELLIOTT
JUALLGAIER
CHBELL
RYPREECE
TYGIBBS
CHBUESCHER
MIMCDOWELL
COZILISCH
CHSMITH
TYREDDICK
RYBLANEY
BRKESELOWSKI
ERJONES
COHEIM
DEHAMLIN
ROCHASTAIN
JOBERRY
SHGISBERGEN
ALBOWMAN
COCUSTER
TOGILLILAND
CHBRISCOE
JOLOGANO
KYBUSCH
DASUAREZ
AUDILLON
JIJOHNSON
WIBYRON
RISTENHOUSE
JONEMECHEK
ANALFREDO
TYDILLON
BUWALLACE
ZASMITH
CAHOCEVAR
AJALLMENDINGER
AUCINDRIC
RIHERBST
NOGRAGSON
BJMCLEOD
COWARE
CAMEARS
COLAJOIE
JJYELEY

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	KYLARSON	CHELLIOTT	JUALLGAIER	CHBELL	RYPREECE	TYGIBBS	CHBUESCHER	MIMCDOWELL	COZILISCH	CHSMITH	TYREDDICK	RYBLANEY
KYLARSON	—	55	59	61	63	64	68	66	65	65	69	66
CHELLIOTT	45	—	53	56	59	59	63	62	59	61	63	62
JUALLGAIER	41	47	—	51	55	54	58	58	55	56	60	57
CHBELL	39	45	49	—	54	54	58	57	55	56	60	57
RYPREECE	37	41	45	46	—	52	54	54	52	52	55	54
TYGIBBS	36	41	46	46	48	—	53	53	51	52	54	53
CHBUESCHER	32	37	42	42	46	47	—	51	49	50	52	51
MIMCDOWELL	34	38	42	43	46	47	49	—	48	49	52	50
COZILISCH	35	41	45	45	48	49	51	52	—	51	53	52
CHSMITH	35	39	44	44	48	48	50	51	49	—	52	52
TYREDDICK	31	37	40	40	45	46	48	48	47	48	—	50
RYBLANEY	34	38	43	43	46	47	49	50	48	48	51	—