Round 7: Mugello — RaceIQ MotoGP

Round 07

🏁Mugello

Sprint + Grand PrixResult + Forecast

Venue

Mugello

Weekend Format

Grand PrixSprint

Two scored races each round.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Marco Bezzecchi is the clear Grand Prix favourite at 41% — nobody else clears 27%.

VERDICT

The Grand Prix forecast called the winner, had 2/3 of the podium — typical miss 2.8 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Jorge Martin

Aprilia

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P5

Race Winner

Marco Bezzecchi

Aprilia

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P4

Francesco Bagnaia

Ducati

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P8

Predicted P5

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Bezzecchi

41%87%

Martin

27%75%

Marquez

10%45%

Fernandez

9%35%

Bagnaia

5%20%

Giannantonio

3%16%

Aldeguer

3%11%

Acosta

1%4%

Morbidelli

0%2%

Moreira

0%1%

Ogura

0%1%

Bastianini

0%1%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Rider	Win	Podium	Range	Confidence	Actual
1	Marco Bezzecchi Aprilia	41%	87%	P1–P4	High	P1
2	Jorge Martin Aprilia	27%	75%	P1–P5	High	P2
3	Marc Marquez Ducati	10%	45%	P2–P6	High	P7
4	Raul Fernandez Aprilia	9%	35%	P2–P7	High	P9
5	Francesco Bagnaia Ducati	5%	20%	P2–P8	High	P3
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio Ducati	3%	16%	P3–P8	High	P5
7	Fermin Aldeguer Ducati	3%	11%	P3–P9	High	P8
8	Pedro Acosta KTM	1%	4%	P5–P11	High	P6
9	Franco Morbidelli Ducati	0%	2%	P7–P12	High	P14
10	Diogo Moreira Honda	0%	1%	P8–P13	High	P10
11	Ai Ogura Aprilia	0%	1%	P8–P14	High	P4
12	Enea Bastianini KTM	0%	1%	P8–P14	High	—
13	Brad Binder KTM	0%	0%	P10–P16	High	P11
14	Joan Mir Honda	0%	0%	P12–P18	High	P12
15	Luca Marini Honda	0%	0%	P12–P18	High	P13
16	Alex Rins Yamaha	0%	0%	P13–P19	High	—
17	Alex Marquez Ducati	0%	0%	P14–P20	High	—
18	Fabio Quartararo Yamaha	0%	0%	P15–P22	Low	P18
19	Maverick Viñales KTM	0%	0%	P16–P23	Low	P17
20	Jack Miller Yamaha	0%	0%	P17–P25	Low	P15
21	Pol Espargaro KTM	0%	0%	P17–P25	Low	—
22	Cal Crutchlow Honda	0%	0%	P18–P25	Low	—
23	Johann Zarco Honda	0%	0%	P18–P26	Low	—
24	Michele Pirro Ducati	0%	0%	P19–P26	Low	P19
25	Toprak Razgatlioglu Yamaha	0%	0%	P20–P27	Low	P16
26	Iker Lecuona Ducati	0%	0%	P21–P28	Low	—
27	Lorenzo Savadori Aprilia	0%	0%	P22–P28	High	—
28	Jonas Folger KTM	0%	0%	P25–P29	High	—
29	Augusto Fernandez Yamaha	0%	0%	P27–P29	High	—

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Marco Bezzecchi

41.4% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Riders Forecast

Race

Grand Prix

Tap any row in the classification above to open a rider’s per-race forecast and season form.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Bezzecchi

41%87%

Martin

27%75%

Marquez

10%45%

Fernandez

9%35%

Bagnaia

5%20%

Giannantonio

3%16%

Aldeguer

3%11%

Acosta

1%4%

Morbidelli

0%2%

Moreira

0%1%

Ogura

0%1%

Bastianini

0%1%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round — Grand Prix

Predicted vs actual — grand prix

Flatter lines = closer calls. 4 exact, 12 of 19 classified within three places. ·NC marks riders not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29
BEZ
MAR
MAM
FE2
BAG
GIA
ALD
ACO
MOF
MOR
OGU
BAS
BIN
MIR
MAL
RIN
MAA
QUA
VIN
MIL
ESP
CRU
ZAR
PIR
RAZ
LEC
SAV
FOL
FER

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	BEZ	MAR	MAM	FE2	BAG	GIA	ALD	ACO	MOF	MOR	OGU	BAS
BEZ	—	61	79	83	90	92	94	97	99	99	99	99
MAR	39	—	70	75	84	87	91	97	99	99	99	99
MAM	21	30	—	57	69	74	81	93	96	98	98	98
FE2	17	25	43	—	64	69	76	90	95	97	97	97
BAG	10	16	31	36	—	56	67	85	92	95	96	96
GIA	8	13	26	31	44	—	61	81	90	93	94	95
ALD	6	9	19	24	33	39	—	73	85	90	91	92
ACO	3	4	7	10	15	19	27	—	66	77	79	80
MOF	1	1	4	5	8	10	15	34	—	61	66	66
MOR	1	1	2	3	5	7	10	23	39	—	54	56
OGU	1	1	2	3	4	6	9	21	34	46	—	51
BAS	1	1	2	3	5	5	8	20	34	44	49	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29
BEZ
MAR
MAM
FE2
BAG
GIA
ALD
ACO
MOF
MOR
OGU
BAS
BIN
MIR
MAL
RIN
MAA
QUA
VIN
MIL
ESP
CRU
ZAR
PIR
RAZ
LEC
SAV
FOL
FER

beats ↓ / →	BEZ	MAR	MAM	FE2	BAG	GIA	ALD	ACO	MOF	MOR	OGU	BAS
BEZ	—	61	79	83	90	92	94	97	99	99	99	99
MAR	39	—	70	75	84	87	91	97	99	99	99	99
MAM	21	30	—	57	69	74	81	93	96	98	98	98
FE2	17	25	43	—	64	69	76	90	95	97	97	97
BAG	10	16	31	36	—	56	67	85	92	95	96	96
GIA	8	13	26	31	44	—	61	81	90	93	94	95
ALD	6	9	19	24	33	39	—	73	85	90	91	92
ACO	3	4	7	10	15	19	27	—	66	77	79	80
MOF	1	1	4	5	8	10	15	34	—	61	66	66
MOR	1	1	2	3	5	7	10	23	39	—	54	56
OGU	1	1	2	3	4	6	9	21	34	46	—	51
BAS	1	1	2	3	5	5	8	20	34	44	49	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29
BEZ
MAR
MAM
FE2
BAG
GIA
ALD
ACO
MOF
MOR
OGU
BAS
BIN
MIR
MAL
RIN
MAA
QUA
VIN
MIL
ESP
CRU
ZAR
PIR
RAZ
LEC
SAV
FOL
FER

beats ↓ / →	BEZ	MAR	MAM	FE2	BAG	GIA	ALD	ACO	MOF	MOR	OGU	BAS
BEZ	—	61	79	83	90	92	94	97	99	99	99	99
MAR	39	—	70	75	84	87	91	97	99	99	99	99
MAM	21	30	—	57	69	74	81	93	96	98	98	98
FE2	17	25	43	—	64	69	76	90	95	97	97	97
BAG	10	16	31	36	—	56	67	85	92	95	96	96
GIA	8	13	26	31	44	—	61	81	90	93	94	95
ALD	6	9	19	24	33	39	—	73	85	90	91	92
ACO	3	4	7	10	15	19	27	—	66	77	79	80
MOF	1	1	4	5	8	10	15	34	—	61	66	66
MOR	1	1	2	3	5	7	10	23	39	—	54	56
OGU	1	1	2	3	4	6	9	21	34	46	—	51
BAS	1	1	2	3	5	5	8	20	34	44	49	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29
BEZ
MAR
MAM
FE2
BAG
GIA
ALD
ACO
MOF
MOR
OGU
BAS
BIN
MIR
MAL
RIN
MAA
QUA
VIN
MIL
ESP
CRU
ZAR
PIR
RAZ
LEC
SAV
FOL
FER

beats ↓ / →	BEZ	MAR	MAM	FE2	BAG	GIA	ALD	ACO	MOF	MOR	OGU	BAS
BEZ	—	61	79	83	90	92	94	97	99	99	99	99
MAR	39	—	70	75	84	87	91	97	99	99	99	99
MAM	21	30	—	57	69	74	81	93	96	98	98	98
FE2	17	25	43	—	64	69	76	90	95	97	97	97
BAG	10	16	31	36	—	56	67	85	92	95	96	96
GIA	8	13	26	31	44	—	61	81	90	93	94	95
ALD	6	9	19	24	33	39	—	73	85	90	91	92
ACO	3	4	7	10	15	19	27	—	66	77	79	80
MOF	1	1	4	5	8	10	15	34	—	61	66	66
MOR	1	1	2	3	5	7	10	23	39	—	54	56
OGU	1	1	2	3	4	6	9	21	34	46	—	51
BAS	1	1	2	3	5	5	8	20	34	44	49	—