Round 9: Bommarito Automotive Group 500

Round 09

Bommarito Automotive Group 500

OvalResult + Forecast

Venue

World Wide Technology Raceway

United States

Race Format

Oval

One points race this weekend.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Model favours David Malukas (23%) over Álex Palou (16%).

OVAL

World Wide Technology Raceway is an oval — flat-out in traffic at 220 mph — pack dynamics, tire falloff and pit cycles decide it, and one wrong move collects the pack.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 0/3 of the podium — typical miss 7.0 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Marcus Ericsson

Andretti Global

Win probability

0.0%

Range P7–P23

Predicted P14

Race Winner

Josef Newgarden

Team Penske

Win probability

0.0%

Range P6–P23

Predicted P13

Christian Rasmussen

ECR

Range P17–P24

Predicted P25

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Malukas

23%56%

O'Ward

13%39%

Palou

16%47%

Kirkwood

12%36%

Armstrong

9%29%

McLaughlin

8%26%

Rosenqvist

7%21%

Lundgaard

2%9%

Dixon

2%6%

Simpson

2%7%

Rahal

2%5%

VeeKay

1%3%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	David Malukas Team Penske	23%	56%	P1–P22	15%	Low	P7
2	Pato O'Ward Arrow McLaren	13%	39%	P1–P22	14%	Low	P11
3	Álex Palou Chip Ganassi Racing	16%	47%	P1–P23	17%	Low	P17
4	Kyle Kirkwood Andretti Global	12%	36%	P1–P22	15%	Low	P6
5	Marcus Armstrong Meyer Shank Racing	9%	29%	P2–P22	14%	Low	P9
6	Scott McLaughlin Team Penske	8%	26%	P2–P23	18%	Low	P5
7	Felix Rosenqvist Meyer Shank Racing	7%	21%	P2–P23	17%	Low	P14
8	Christian Lundgaard Arrow McLaren	2%	9%	P4–P21	14%	Medium	P10
9	Scott Dixon Chip Ganassi Racing	2%	6%	P5–P22	15%	Medium	P12
10	Kyffin Simpson Chip Ganassi Racing	2%	7%	P5–P22	15%	Medium	P21
11	Graham Rahal Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	2%	5%	P5–P22	13%	Medium	P23
12	Rinus VeeKay Juncos Hollinger Racing	1%	3%	P6–P23	15%	Medium	P4
13	Josef Newgarden Team Penske	1%	3%	P6–P23	20%	Medium	P1
14	Marcus Ericsson Andretti Global	1%	3%	P7–P23	20%	Medium	P2
15	Santino Ferrucci A.J. Foyt Enterprises	1%	3%	P7–P23	18%	Medium	P13
16	Dennis Hauger Dale Coyne Racing	1%	2%	P8–P23	15%	High	P25
17	Nolan Siegel Arrow McLaren	1%	2%	P9–P24	21%	High	P24
18	Louis Foster Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	1%	P10–P23	19%	High	P20
19	Romain Grosjean Dale Coyne Racing	0%	1%	P10–P23	22%	High	P15
20	Mick Schumacher Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	0%	P13–P23	17%	High	P16
21	Alexander Rossi ECR	0%	1%	P13–P23	19%	High	P18
22	Will Power Andretti Global	0%	0%	P15–P24	23%	High	P8
23	Caio Collet A.J. Foyt Enterprises	0%	0%	P15–P23	17%	High	P22
24	Sting Ray Robb Juncos Hollinger Racing	0%	0%	P15–P23	18%	High	P19
25	Christian Rasmussen ECR	0%	0%	P17–P24	23%	High	P3

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

David Malukas

22.6% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Oval

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Oval

World Wide Technology Raceway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Oval racing: flat-out in traffic at 220 mph — pack dynamics, tire falloff and pit cycles decide it, and one wrong move collects the pack. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Malukas

23%56%

O'Ward

13%39%

Palou

16%47%

Kirkwood

12%36%

Armstrong

9%29%

McLaughlin

8%26%

Rosenqvist

7%21%

Lundgaard

2%9%

Dixon

2%6%

Simpson

2%7%

Rahal

2%5%

VeeKay

1%3%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 0 exact, 8 of 25 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
DAMALUKAS
PAWARD
ALPALOU
KYKIRKWOOD
MAARMSTRONG
SCMCLAUGHLIN
FEROSENQVIST
CHLUNDGAARD
SCDIXON
KYSIMPSON
GRRAHAL
RIVEEKAY
JONEWGARDEN
MAERICSSON
SAFERRUCCI
DEHAUGER
NOSIEGEL
LOFOSTER
ROGROSJEAN
MISCHUMACHER
ALROSSI
WIPOWER
CACOLLET
STROBB
CHRASMUSSEN

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	DAMALUKAS	PAWARD	ALPALOU	KYKIRKWOOD	MAARMSTRONG	SCMCLAUGHLIN	FEROSENQVIST	CHLUNDGAARD	SCDIXON	KYSIMPSON	GRRAHAL	RIVEEKAY
DAMALUKAS	—	60	55	61	66	68	71	79	82	81	82	84
PAWARD	40	—	46	52	56	60	63	75	79	78	80	82
ALPALOU	45	54	—	56	60	63	66	75	78	78	79	81
KYKIRKWOOD	39	48	44	—	54	57	61	73	76	76	79	80
MAARMSTRONG	34	44	40	46	—	53	57	71	76	75	78	81
SCMCLAUGHLIN	32	41	37	43	47	—	54	67	72	71	74	76
FEROSENQVIST	29	37	34	39	43	46	—	64	69	70	73	77
CHLUNDGAARD	21	25	25	27	29	33	36	—	58	59	64	69
SCDIXON	18	21	22	24	24	28	31	42	—	50	56	61
KYSIMPSON	19	22	22	24	25	29	30	41	50	—	54	60
GRRAHAL	18	20	21	21	22	26	27	36	45	46	—	57
RIVEEKAY	16	18	19	20	19	24	23	31	39	40	43	—