Round 8: Chevrolet Detroit Grand Prix

Round 08

Chevrolet Detroit Grand Prix

Street CircuitResult + Forecast

Venue

Streets of Detroit

United States

Race Format

Street Circuit

One points race this weekend.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Álex Palou is the clear favourite at 40% — nobody else clears 23%.

STREET CIRCUIT

Streets of Detroit is a street circuit — temporary walls with zero margin — track position rules, and cautions can reshuffle everything.

VERDICT

The forecast called the winner, had 2/3 of the podium — typical miss 5.0 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Kyle Kirkwood

Andretti Global

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P22

Predicted P3

Race Winner

Álex Palou

Chip Ganassi Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P23

Graham Rahal

Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P20

Predicted P6

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Palou

40%77%

Malukas

23%64%

Kirkwood

13%46%

Dixon

6%25%

Lundgaard

4%20%

Rahal

3%11%

O'Ward

2%10%

McLaughlin

2%11%

Armstrong

1%7%

Hauger

1%4%

Newgarden

1%6%

Rosenqvist

1%5%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Álex Palou Chip Ganassi Racing	40%	77%	P1–P23	15%	Low	P1
2	David Malukas Team Penske	23%	64%	P1–P22	13%	Low	P18
3	Kyle Kirkwood Andretti Global	13%	46%	P1–P22	13%	Low	P2
4	Scott Dixon Chip Ganassi Racing	6%	25%	P2–P21	12%	Low	P24
5	Christian Lundgaard Arrow McLaren	4%	20%	P2–P20	12%	Medium	P5
6	Graham Rahal Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	3%	11%	P3–P20	11%	Medium	P3
7	Pato O'Ward Arrow McLaren	2%	10%	P3–P21	12%	Medium	P4
8	Scott McLaughlin Team Penske	2%	11%	P3–P23	16%	Low	P19
9	Marcus Armstrong Meyer Shank Racing	1%	7%	P4–P22	12%	Medium	P11
10	Dennis Hauger Dale Coyne Racing	1%	4%	P5–P22	13%	Medium	P13
11	Josef Newgarden Team Penske	1%	6%	P5–P23	18%	Medium	P10
12	Felix Rosenqvist Meyer Shank Racing	1%	5%	P5–P22	15%	Medium	P6
13	Kyffin Simpson Chip Ganassi Racing	1%	4%	P6–P22	13%	Medium	P9
14	Rinus VeeKay Juncos Hollinger Racing	0%	2%	P7–P22	13%	Medium	P12
15	Santino Ferrucci A.J. Foyt Enterprises	0%	2%	P8–P23	15%	Medium	P23
16	Nolan Siegel Arrow McLaren	1%	2%	P8–P24	20%	Medium	P15
17	Louis Foster Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	1%	P9–P23	17%	High	P7
18	Marcus Ericsson Andretti Global	0%	1%	P9–P23	18%	High	P8
19	Will Power Andretti Global	0%	1%	P10–P23	20%	High	P22
20	Alexander Rossi ECR	0%	1%	P12–P23	17%	High	P17
21	Romain Grosjean Dale Coyne Racing	0%	0%	P13–P23	18%	High	P20
22	Mick Schumacher Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	0%	P15–P23	15%	High	P21
23	Caio Collet A.J. Foyt Enterprises	0%	0%	P16–P23	15%	High	P16
24	Sting Ray Robb Juncos Hollinger Racing	0%	0%	P16–P24	16%	High	P14
25	Christian Rasmussen ECR	0%	0%	P17–P24	20%	High	P25

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Álex Palou

40.0% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Street Circuit

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Street Circuit

Streets of Detroit

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Street Circuit racing: temporary walls with zero margin — track position rules, and cautions can reshuffle everything. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Palou

40%77%

Malukas

23%64%

Kirkwood

13%46%

Dixon

6%25%

Lundgaard

4%20%

Rahal

3%11%

O'Ward

2%10%

McLaughlin

2%11%

Armstrong

1%7%

Hauger

1%4%

Newgarden

1%6%

Rosenqvist

1%5%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 3 exact, 15 of 25 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
ALPALOU
DAMALUKAS
KYKIRKWOOD
SCDIXON
CHLUNDGAARD
GRRAHAL
PAWARD
SCMCLAUGHLIN
MAARMSTRONG
DEHAUGER
JONEWGARDEN
FEROSENQVIST
KYSIMPSON
RIVEEKAY
SAFERRUCCI
NOSIEGEL
LOFOSTER
MAERICSSON
WIPOWER
ALROSSI
ROGROSJEAN
MISCHUMACHER
CACOLLET
STROBB
CHRASMUSSEN

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	ALPALOU	DAMALUKAS	KYKIRKWOOD	SCDIXON	CHLUNDGAARD	GRRAHAL	PAWARD	SCMCLAUGHLIN	MAARMSTRONG	DEHAUGER	JONEWGARDEN	FEROSENQVIST
ALPALOU	—	61	70	78	79	82	83	83	84	85	85	85
DAMALUKAS	39	—	61	73	76	81	81	81	84	85	85	85
KYKIRKWOOD	30	39	—	63	68	75	76	76	80	83	81	83
SCDIXON	22	27	37	—	55	66	68	67	73	79	76	79
CHLUNDGAARD	21	24	32	45	—	62	63	62	69	76	72	76
GRRAHAL	18	19	25	34	38	—	52	50	59	67	65	68
PAWARD	17	19	24	32	37	48	—	50	57	66	63	67
SCMCLAUGHLIN	18	19	24	33	38	50	50	—	58	65	62	66
MAARMSTRONG	16	16	20	27	31	41	43	42	—	60	57	61
DEHAUGER	15	15	17	21	24	33	34	35	40	—	47	51
JONEWGARDEN	15	15	19	24	28	35	37	38	43	53	—	53
FEROSENQVIST	15	15	17	21	24	32	33	34	39	49	47	—