Round 7: 110th Running of the Indianapolis 500

Round 07

110th Running of the Indianapolis 500

OvalIndy 500Result + Forecast

Venue

Indianapolis Motor Speedway

United States

Race Format

Oval

The Indianapolis 500 — a 33-car field, one-off entries included.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Kyle Kirkwood is the clear favourite at 28% — nobody else clears 13%.

OVAL

Indianapolis Motor Speedway is an oval — flat-out in traffic at 220 mph — pack dynamics, tire falloff and pit cycles decide it, and one wrong move collects the pack.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 1/3 of the podium — typical miss 9.1 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

David Malukas

Team Penske

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P30

Race Winner

Felix Rosenqvist

Meyer Shank Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P8–P30

Predicted P19

Scott McLaughlin

Team Penske

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P30

Predicted P8

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Kirkwood

28%61%

Malukas

13%39%

Dixon

8%23%

Newgarden

9%30%

Daly

6%20%

Palou

7%21%

O'Ward

4%13%

McLaughlin

4%14%

Sato

4%12%

Armstrong

3%10%

Castroneves

3%10%

Lundgaard

2%8%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Kyle Kirkwood Andretti Global	28%	61%	P1–P30	15%	Low	P16
2	David Malukas Team Penske	13%	39%	P1–P30	15%	Low	P2
3	Scott Dixon Chip Ganassi Racing	8%	23%	P2–P28	14%	Low	P15
4	Josef Newgarden Team Penske	9%	30%	P2–P30	19%	Low	P28
5	Conor Daly Dreyer & Reinbold Racing	6%	20%	P2–P29	15%	Low	P12
6	Álex Palou Chip Ganassi Racing	7%	21%	P2–P30	16%	Low	P7
7	Pato O'Ward Arrow McLaren	4%	13%	P3–P29	14%	Low	P4
8	Scott McLaughlin Team Penske	4%	14%	P3–P30	18%	Low	P3
9	Takuma Sato Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	4%	12%	P3–P30	17%	Low	P10
10	Marcus Armstrong Meyer Shank Racing	3%	10%	P3–P29	14%	Low	P5
11	Hélio Castroneves Meyer Shank Racing	3%	10%	P3–P30	17%	Low	P25
12	Christian Lundgaard Arrow McLaren	2%	8%	P4–P29	14%	Medium	P17
13	Graham Rahal Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	2%	5%	P5–P29	12%	Medium	P20
14	Kyffin Simpson Chip Ganassi Racing	1%	5%	P6–P30	15%	Medium	P14
15	Jack Harvey Dreyer & Reinbold Racing	1%	4%	P6–P30	17%	Medium	P22
16	Ed Carpenter ECR	1%	4%	P7–P30	17%	Medium	P31
17	Alexander Rossi ECR	1%	4%	P7–P30	18%	Medium	P30
18	Dennis Hauger Dale Coyne Racing	1%	3%	P8–P30	15%	Medium	P19
19	Felix Rosenqvist Meyer Shank Racing	1%	3%	P8–P30	16%	Medium	P1
20	Ryan Hunter-Reay Arrow McLaren	1%	2%	P9–P31	21%	Medium	P32
21	Santino Ferrucci A.J. Foyt Enterprises	1%	2%	P10–P30	16%	Medium	P8
22	Will Power Andretti Global	0%	1%	P12–P31	20%	Medium	P29
23	Marcus Ericsson Andretti Global	0%	1%	P13–P31	20%	High	P13
24	Katherine Legge HMD Motorsports	0%	1%	P14–P30	18%	High	P33
25	Rinus VeeKay Juncos Hollinger Racing	0%	1%	P15–P30	15%	High	P6
26	Jacob Abel Abel Motorsports	0%	1%	P15–P31	20%	High	P24
27	Louis Foster Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	0%	P18–P31	19%	High	P21
28	Christian Rasmussen ECR	0%	0%	P18–P31	20%	High	P27
29	Nolan Siegel Arrow McLaren	0%	0%	P18–P31	21%	High	P11
30	Caio Collet A.J. Foyt Enterprises	0%	0%	P19–P30	15%	High	P26
31	Mick Schumacher Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	0%	P19–P31	18%	High	P18
32	Romain Grosjean Dale Coyne Racing	0%	0%	P21–P31	20%	High	P9
33	Sting Ray Robb Juncos Hollinger Racing	0%	0%	P22–P31	18%	High	P23

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Kyle Kirkwood

27.5% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Oval

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Oval

Indianapolis Motor Speedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Oval racing: flat-out in traffic at 220 mph — pack dynamics, tire falloff and pit cycles decide it, and one wrong move collects the pack. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Kirkwood

28%61%

Malukas

13%39%

Dixon

8%23%

Newgarden

9%30%

Daly

6%20%

Palou

7%21%

O'Ward

4%13%

McLaughlin

4%14%

Sato

4%12%

Armstrong

3%10%

Castroneves

3%10%

Lundgaard

2%8%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 2 exact, 8 of 33 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33
KYKIRKWOOD
DAMALUKAS
SCDIXON
JONEWGARDEN
CODALY
ALPALOU
PAWARD
SCMCLAUGHLIN
TASATO
MAARMSTRONG
HECASTRONEVES
CHLUNDGAARD
GRRAHAL
KYSIMPSON
JAHARVEY
EDCARPENTER
ALROSSI
DEHAUGER
FEROSENQVIST
RYREAY
SAFERRUCCI
WIPOWER
MAERICSSON
KALEGGE
RIVEEKAY
JAABEL
LOFOSTER
CHRASMUSSEN
NOSIEGEL
CACOLLET
MISCHUMACHER
ROGROSJEAN
STROBB

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	KYKIRKWOOD	DAMALUKAS	SCDIXON	JONEWGARDEN	CODALY	ALPALOU	PAWARD	SCMCLAUGHLIN	TASATO	MAARMSTRONG	HECASTRONEVES	CHLUNDGAARD
KYKIRKWOOD	—	64	72	69	73	72	77	77	78	79	79	80
DAMALUKAS	36	—	60	56	63	63	69	70	71	72	72	75
SCDIXON	28	40	—	47	53	53	62	62	64	67	66	69
JONEWGARDEN	31	44	53	—	57	56	64	64	66	68	68	70
CODALY	27	37	47	43	—	50	58	59	62	63	64	67
ALPALOU	28	37	47	44	50	—	59	59	62	63	64	66
PAWARD	23	31	38	36	42	41	—	51	53	55	55	58
SCMCLAUGHLIN	23	30	38	36	41	41	49	—	52	54	53	57
TASATO	22	30	36	34	38	39	47	48	—	52	53	54
MAARMSTRONG	21	28	33	32	37	37	45	46	48	—	51	53
HECASTRONEVES	21	28	34	32	36	36	45	47	47	49	—	53
CHLUNDGAARD	20	25	31	30	33	34	42	43	46	47	47	—