Round 6: Sonsio Grand Prix

Round 06

Sonsio Grand Prix

Road CourseResult + Forecast

Venue

Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course

United States

Race Format

Road Course

One points race this weekend.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Álex Palou is the clear favourite at 39% — nobody else clears 31%.

ROAD COURSE

Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course is a road course — permanent road-course racing — braking zones, tire management and racecraft separate the field.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 1/3 of the podium — typical miss 6.2 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

David Malukas

Team Penske

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P13

Predicted P3

Race Winner

Christian Lundgaard

Arrow McLaren

Win probability

0.0%

Range P4–P14

Predicted P7

Graham Rahal

Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P4–P15

Predicted P9

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Kirkwood

31%76%

Palou

39%80%

Malukas

7%33%

Dixon

6%25%

O'Ward

4%19%

McLaughlin

3%13%

Lundgaard

2%10%

Rosenqvist

2%9%

Rahal

2%8%

Rossi

2%8%

Newgarden

1%6%

Armstrong

1%2%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Kyle Kirkwood Andretti Global	31%	76%	P1–P21	10%	Low	P9
2	Álex Palou Chip Ganassi Racing	39%	80%	P1–P22	12%	Low	P5
3	David Malukas Team Penske	7%	33%	P2–P13	10%	Medium	P2
4	Scott Dixon Chip Ganassi Racing	6%	25%	P2–P11	9%	High	P6
5	Pato O'Ward Arrow McLaren	4%	19%	P3–P12	9%	High	P18
6	Scott McLaughlin Team Penske	3%	13%	P3–P23	13%	Low	P16
7	Christian Lundgaard Arrow McLaren	2%	10%	P4–P14	9%	High	P1
8	Felix Rosenqvist Meyer Shank Racing	2%	9%	P4–P21	10%	Low	P23
9	Graham Rahal Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	2%	8%	P4–P15	8%	Medium	P3
10	Alexander Rossi ECR	2%	8%	P4–P22	12%	Low	P25
11	Josef Newgarden Team Penske	1%	6%	P4–P23	14%	Low	P4
12	Marcus Armstrong Meyer Shank Racing	1%	2%	P6–P18	9%	Medium	P11
13	Kyffin Simpson Chip Ganassi Racing	0%	2%	P7–P21	10%	Medium	P12
14	Marcus Ericsson Andretti Global	0%	2%	P7–P23	14%	Low	P22
15	Dennis Hauger Dale Coyne Racing	0%	1%	P8–P20	9%	Medium	P8
16	Will Power Andretti Global	0%	2%	P8–P23	16%	Low	P13
17	Rinus VeeKay Juncos Hollinger Racing	0%	1%	P9–P21	10%	Medium	P15
18	Santino Ferrucci A.J. Foyt Enterprises	0%	1%	P11–P23	12%	Medium	P14
19	Nolan Siegel Arrow McLaren	0%	0%	P13–P24	17%	Medium	P10
20	Christian Rasmussen ECR	0%	0%	P14–P23	14%	High	P24
21	Louis Foster Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	0%	P14–P23	14%	High	P7
22	Romain Grosjean Dale Coyne Racing	0%	0%	P14–P24	15%	High	P21
23	Caio Collet A.J. Foyt Enterprises	0%	0%	P16–P23	9%	High	P19
24	Mick Schumacher Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	0%	P17–P24	12%	High	P20
25	Sting Ray Robb Juncos Hollinger Racing	0%	0%	P18–P24	13%	High	P17

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Kyle Kirkwood

30.8% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Road Course

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Road Course

Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Road Course racing: permanent road-course racing — braking zones, tire management and racecraft separate the field. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Kirkwood

31%76%

Palou

39%80%

Malukas

7%33%

Dixon

6%25%

O'Ward

4%19%

McLaughlin

3%13%

Lundgaard

2%10%

Rosenqvist

2%9%

Rahal

2%8%

Rossi

2%8%

Newgarden

1%6%

Armstrong

1%2%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 0 exact, 8 of 25 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
KYKIRKWOOD
ALPALOU
DAMALUKAS
SCDIXON
PAWARD
SCMCLAUGHLIN
CHLUNDGAARD
FEROSENQVIST
GRRAHAL
ALROSSI
JONEWGARDEN
MAARMSTRONG
KYSIMPSON
MAERICSSON
DEHAUGER
WIPOWER
RIVEEKAY
SAFERRUCCI
NOSIEGEL
CHRASMUSSEN
LOFOSTER
ROGROSJEAN
CACOLLET
MISCHUMACHER
STROBB

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	KYKIRKWOOD	ALPALOU	DAMALUKAS	SCDIXON	PAWARD	SCMCLAUGHLIN	CHLUNDGAARD	FEROSENQVIST	GRRAHAL	ALROSSI	JONEWGARDEN	MAARMSTRONG
KYKIRKWOOD	—	45	76	79	81	85	86	86	86	87	87	89
ALPALOU	55	—	78	81	83	84	85	86	86	86	87	88
DAMALUKAS	24	22	—	56	63	69	74	75	76	76	80	85
SCDIXON	21	19	44	—	56	64	70	71	72	74	77	83
PAWARD	19	17	37	44	—	58	64	66	69	68	73	81
SCMCLAUGHLIN	15	16	31	36	42	—	56	58	60	61	66	74
CHLUNDGAARD	14	15	26	31	36	44	—	51	54	55	61	72
FEROSENQVIST	14	14	25	29	34	42	49	—	52	54	61	70
GRRAHAL	14	14	24	28	31	40	46	48	—	52	58	69
ALROSSI	13	14	24	26	32	39	45	46	48	—	56	66
JONEWGARDEN	13	13	20	23	27	34	39	39	42	44	—	60
MAARMSTRONG	11	12	15	17	19	26	28	30	31	34	40	—