Round 5: Acura Grand Prix of Long Beach

Round 05

Acura Grand Prix of Long Beach

Street CircuitResult + Forecast

Venue

Streets of Long Beach

United States

Race Format

Street Circuit

One points race this weekend.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Kyle Kirkwood is the clear favourite at 29% — nobody else clears 23%.

STREET CIRCUIT

Streets of Long Beach is a street circuit — temporary walls with zero margin — track position rules, and cautions can reshuffle everything.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 1/3 of the podium — typical miss 6.4 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Felix Rosenqvist

Meyer Shank Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P7–P22

Predicted P14

Race Winner

Álex Palou

Chip Ganassi Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P23

Predicted P2

Scott Dixon

Chip Ganassi Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P21

Predicted P7

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Kirkwood

29%66%

Palou

23%60%

Lundgaard

14%44%

Malukas

8%28%

Armstrong

6%22%

Ericsson

4%17%

Dixon

3%10%

O'Ward

3%10%

Newgarden

2%10%

McLaughlin

2%7%

Rahal

2%6%

Rossi

2%6%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Kyle Kirkwood Andretti Global	29%	66%	P1–P22	14%	Low	P4
2	Álex Palou Chip Ganassi Racing	23%	60%	P1–P23	16%	Low	P1
3	Christian Lundgaard Arrow McLaren	14%	44%	P1–P21	13%	Low	P20
4	David Malukas Team Penske	8%	28%	P2–P22	14%	Low	P7
5	Marcus Armstrong Meyer Shank Racing	6%	22%	P2–P22	13%	Low	P24
6	Marcus Ericsson Andretti Global	4%	17%	P2–P23	17%	Low	P25
7	Scott Dixon Chip Ganassi Racing	3%	10%	P3–P21	13%	Medium	P3
8	Pato O'Ward Arrow McLaren	3%	10%	P3–P22	13%	Medium	P5
9	Josef Newgarden Team Penske	2%	10%	P4–P23	18%	Medium	P14
10	Scott McLaughlin Team Penske	2%	7%	P4–P23	17%	Medium	P6
11	Graham Rahal Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	2%	6%	P5–P21	12%	Medium	P8
12	Alexander Rossi ECR	2%	6%	P5–P23	16%	Medium	P9
13	Will Power Andretti Global	1%	5%	P5–P23	20%	Medium	P19
14	Felix Rosenqvist Meyer Shank Racing	1%	3%	P7–P22	14%	Medium	P2
15	Rinus VeeKay Juncos Hollinger Racing	0%	1%	P9–P23	14%	Medium	P13
16	Santino Ferrucci A.J. Foyt Enterprises	0%	2%	P9–P23	16%	Medium	P18
17	Kyffin Simpson Chip Ganassi Racing	0%	1%	P11–P22	14%	High	P10
18	Romain Grosjean Dale Coyne Racing	0%	1%	P12–P23	20%	High	P21
19	Caio Collet A.J. Foyt Enterprises	0%	0%	P13–P23	14%	High	P22
20	Dennis Hauger Dale Coyne Racing	0%	0%	P13–P23	14%	High	P11
21	Christian Rasmussen ECR	0%	0%	P14–P23	18%	High	P15
22	Louis Foster Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	0%	P14–P23	18%	High	P16
23	Nolan Siegel Arrow McLaren	0%	0%	P14–P24	21%	High	P12
24	Sting Ray Robb Juncos Hollinger Racing	0%	0%	P15–P23	17%	High	P23
25	Mick Schumacher Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	0%	P18–P24	17%	High	P17

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Kyle Kirkwood

29.2% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Street Circuit

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Street Circuit

Streets of Long Beach

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Street Circuit racing: temporary walls with zero margin — track position rules, and cautions can reshuffle everything. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Kirkwood

29%66%

Palou

23%60%

Lundgaard

14%44%

Malukas

8%28%

Armstrong

6%22%

Ericsson

4%17%

Dixon

3%10%

O'Ward

3%10%

Newgarden

2%10%

McLaughlin

2%7%

Rahal

2%6%

Rossi

2%6%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 0 exact, 11 of 25 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
KYKIRKWOOD
ALPALOU
CHLUNDGAARD
DAMALUKAS
MAARMSTRONG
MAERICSSON
SCDIXON
PAWARD
JONEWGARDEN
SCMCLAUGHLIN
GRRAHAL
ALROSSI
WIPOWER
FEROSENQVIST
RIVEEKAY
SAFERRUCCI
KYSIMPSON
ROGROSJEAN
CACOLLET
DEHAUGER
CHRASMUSSEN
LOFOSTER
NOSIEGEL
STROBB
MISCHUMACHER

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	KYKIRKWOOD	ALPALOU	CHLUNDGAARD	DAMALUKAS	MAARMSTRONG	MAERICSSON	SCDIXON	PAWARD	JONEWGARDEN	SCMCLAUGHLIN	GRRAHAL	ALROSSI
KYKIRKWOOD	—	55	63	72	75	78	81	81	82	84	84	83
ALPALOU	45	—	59	68	71	75	78	79	79	80	81	81
CHLUNDGAARD	37	41	—	61	65	70	76	76	78	81	82	81
DAMALUKAS	28	32	39	—	54	61	68	68	70	73	76	75
MAARMSTRONG	25	29	35	46	—	56	65	65	67	71	73	73
MAERICSSON	22	25	30	39	44	—	58	58	60	64	68	66
SCDIXON	19	22	24	32	35	42	—	50	55	58	62	62
PAWARD	19	21	24	32	35	42	50	—	54	57	63	62
JONEWGARDEN	18	21	23	30	33	40	45	46	—	53	57	57
SCMCLAUGHLIN	16	20	19	27	29	36	42	43	47	—	55	54
GRRAHAL	16	19	18	24	27	32	38	37	43	45	—	50
ALROSSI	17	19	19	25	27	34	38	38	43	46	50	—