Round 4: Children's of Alabama Indy Grand Prix

Round 04

Children's of Alabama Indy Grand Prix

Road CourseResult + Forecast

Venue

Barber Motorsports Park

United States

Race Format

Road Course

One points race this weekend.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Kyle Kirkwood is the clear favourite at 38% — nobody else clears 14%.

ROAD COURSE

Barber Motorsports Park is a road course — permanent road-course racing — braking zones, tire management and racecraft separate the field.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 1/3 of the podium — typical miss 4.5 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Christian Lundgaard

Arrow McLaren

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P11

Predicted P4

Race Winner

Álex Palou

Chip Ganassi Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P22

Predicted P3

Graham Rahal

Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P10–P21

Predicted P17

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Kirkwood

38%74%

O'Ward

12%41%

Palou

14%46%

Lundgaard

8%29%

Malukas

5%17%

McLaughlin

5%21%

Armstrong

3%15%

Ericsson

5%18%

Newgarden

2%9%

Dixon

1%5%

Rossi

2%7%

Power

2%6%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Kyle Kirkwood Andretti Global	38%	74%	P1–P22	11%	Low	P5
2	Pato O'Ward Arrow McLaren	12%	41%	P1–P11	10%	High	P17
3	Álex Palou Chip Ganassi Racing	14%	46%	P1–P22	13%	Low	P1
4	Christian Lundgaard Arrow McLaren	8%	29%	P2–P11	10%	High	P2
5	David Malukas Team Penske	5%	17%	P3–P21	11%	Low	P4
6	Scott McLaughlin Team Penske	5%	21%	P2–P23	14%	Low	P16
7	Marcus Armstrong Meyer Shank Racing	3%	15%	P3–P15	10%	Medium	P6
8	Marcus Ericsson Andretti Global	5%	18%	P2–P23	14%	Low	P9
9	Josef Newgarden Team Penske	2%	9%	P4–P23	16%	Low	P10
10	Scott Dixon Chip Ganassi Racing	1%	5%	P5–P17	10%	Medium	P7
11	Alexander Rossi ECR	2%	7%	P5–P22	13%	Low	P11
12	Will Power Andretti Global	2%	6%	P5–P23	17%	Low	P12
13	Caio Collet A.J. Foyt Enterprises	1%	2%	P8–P21	11%	Medium	P21
14	Dennis Hauger Dale Coyne Racing	0%	2%	P8–P21	11%	Medium	P23
15	Felix Rosenqvist Meyer Shank Racing	0%	2%	P8–P22	11%	Medium	P13
16	Rinus VeeKay Juncos Hollinger Racing	0%	1%	P9–P22	11%	Medium	P14
17	Graham Rahal Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	1%	P10–P21	9%	High	P3
18	Kyffin Simpson Chip Ganassi Racing	0%	1%	P10–P22	11%	Medium	P20
19	Louis Foster Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	1%	P10–P23	16%	Medium	P25
20	Santino Ferrucci A.J. Foyt Enterprises	0%	0%	P13–P23	13%	High	P8
21	Romain Grosjean Dale Coyne Racing	0%	0%	P14–P23	17%	High	P15
22	Sting Ray Robb Juncos Hollinger Racing	0%	0%	P16–P24	14%	High	P22
23	Christian Rasmussen ECR	0%	0%	P16–P24	16%	High	P19
24	Nolan Siegel Arrow McLaren	0%	0%	P17–P24	18%	High	P18
25	Mick Schumacher Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	0%	P18–P24	14%	High	P24

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Kyle Kirkwood

37.5% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Road Course

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Road Course

Barber Motorsports Park

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Road Course racing: permanent road-course racing — braking zones, tire management and racecraft separate the field. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Kirkwood

38%74%

O'Ward

12%41%

Palou

14%46%

Lundgaard

8%29%

Malukas

5%17%

McLaughlin

5%21%

Armstrong

3%15%

Ericsson

5%18%

Newgarden

2%9%

Dixon

1%5%

Rossi

2%7%

Power

2%6%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 3 exact, 14 of 25 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
KYKIRKWOOD
PAWARD
ALPALOU
CHLUNDGAARD
DAMALUKAS
SCMCLAUGHLIN
MAARMSTRONG
MAERICSSON
JONEWGARDEN
SCDIXON
ALROSSI
WIPOWER
CACOLLET
DEHAUGER
FEROSENQVIST
RIVEEKAY
GRRAHAL
KYSIMPSON
LOFOSTER
SAFERRUCCI
ROGROSJEAN
STROBB
CHRASMUSSEN
NOSIEGEL
MISCHUMACHER

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	KYKIRKWOOD	PAWARD	ALPALOU	CHLUNDGAARD	DAMALUKAS	SCMCLAUGHLIN	MAARMSTRONG	MAERICSSON	JONEWGARDEN	SCDIXON	ALROSSI	WIPOWER
KYKIRKWOOD	—	70	69	76	81	80	82	81	85	87	86	86
PAWARD	30	—	47	58	70	66	71	69	79	83	81	83
ALPALOU	31	53	—	61	71	67	72	70	78	81	81	83
CHLUNDGAARD	24	42	39	—	62	58	64	62	74	79	79	80
DAMALUKAS	19	30	29	38	—	47	51	50	64	70	70	71
SCMCLAUGHLIN	20	34	33	42	53	—	56	53	67	72	70	74
MAARMSTRONG	18	29	28	36	49	44	—	48	63	70	68	71
MAERICSSON	19	31	30	38	50	47	52	—	63	69	68	70
JONEWGARDEN	15	21	22	26	36	33	37	37	—	56	55	59
SCDIXON	13	17	19	21	30	28	30	31	44	—	49	52
ALROSSI	14	19	19	21	30	30	32	32	45	51	—	53
WIPOWER	14	17	18	20	29	26	29	30	41	48	47	—