Round 3: Java House Grand Prix of Arlington

Round 03

Java House Grand Prix of Arlington

Street CircuitResult + Forecast

Venue

Streets of Arlington

United States

Race Format

Street Circuit

One points race this weekend.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Model favours Kyle Kirkwood (16%) over Scott McLaughlin (14%).

STREET CIRCUIT

Streets of Arlington is a street circuit — temporary walls with zero margin — track position rules, and cautions can reshuffle everything.

VERDICT

The forecast called the winner, had 2/3 of the podium — typical miss 5.2 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Álex Palou

Chip Ganassi Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P23

Predicted P3

Race Winner

Kyle Kirkwood

Andretti Global

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P22

Will Power

Andretti Global

Win probability

0.0%

Range P9–P23

Predicted P18

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Kirkwood

16%43%

Lundgaard

13%37%

Palou

13%38%

O'Ward

10%30%

McLaughlin

14%39%

Armstrong

6%22%

Newgarden

6%20%

Hauger

3%10%

Malukas

3%9%

Rosenqvist

2%8%

Ericsson

3%9%

Rossi

2%6%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Kyle Kirkwood Andretti Global	16%	43%	P1–P22	15%	Low	P1
2	Christian Lundgaard Arrow McLaren	13%	37%	P1–P21	14%	Low	P7
3	Álex Palou Chip Ganassi Racing	13%	38%	P1–P23	17%	Low	P2
4	Pato O'Ward Arrow McLaren	10%	30%	P2–P22	14%	Low	P5
5	Scott McLaughlin Team Penske	14%	39%	P1–P23	18%	Low	P11
6	Marcus Armstrong Meyer Shank Racing	6%	22%	P2–P22	14%	Low	P10
7	Josef Newgarden Team Penske	6%	20%	P2–P23	20%	Low	P15
8	Dennis Hauger Dale Coyne Racing	3%	10%	P3–P23	16%	Low	P16
9	David Malukas Team Penske	3%	9%	P4–P22	15%	Medium	P6
10	Felix Rosenqvist Meyer Shank Racing	2%	8%	P4–P22	15%	Medium	P19
11	Marcus Ericsson Andretti Global	3%	9%	P4–P23	18%	Medium	P4
12	Alexander Rossi ECR	2%	6%	P5–P23	17%	Medium	P9
13	Kyffin Simpson Chip Ganassi Racing	2%	6%	P5–P22	15%	Medium	P20
14	Scott Dixon Chip Ganassi Racing	1%	4%	P6–P22	14%	Medium	P8
15	Graham Rahal Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	2%	4%	P7–P22	12%	High	P18
16	Rinus VeeKay Juncos Hollinger Racing	1%	3%	P7–P23	15%	Medium	P14
17	Romain Grosjean Dale Coyne Racing	1%	3%	P8–P23	19%	High	P23
18	Will Power Andretti Global	1%	2%	P9–P23	21%	High	P3
19	Christian Rasmussen ECR	1%	2%	P9–P23	18%	High	P25
20	Louis Foster Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	2%	P10–P23	20%	High	P13
21	Caio Collet A.J. Foyt Enterprises	0%	1%	P10–P23	16%	High	P12
22	Nolan Siegel Arrow McLaren	0%	1%	P13–P24	21%	High	P24
23	Santino Ferrucci A.J. Foyt Enterprises	0%	1%	P13–P23	17%	High	P17
24	Sting Ray Robb Juncos Hollinger Racing	0%	1%	P14–P23	18%	High	P21
25	Mick Schumacher Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	0%	P17–P24	19%	High	P22

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Kyle Kirkwood

15.6% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Street Circuit

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Street Circuit

Streets of Arlington

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Street Circuit racing: temporary walls with zero margin — track position rules, and cautions can reshuffle everything. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Kirkwood

16%43%

Lundgaard

13%37%

Palou

13%38%

O'Ward

10%30%

McLaughlin

14%39%

Armstrong

6%22%

Newgarden

6%20%

Hauger

3%10%

Malukas

3%9%

Rosenqvist

2%8%

Ericsson

3%9%

Rossi

2%6%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 1 exact, 10 of 25 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
KYKIRKWOOD
CHLUNDGAARD
ALPALOU
PAWARD
SCMCLAUGHLIN
MAARMSTRONG
JONEWGARDEN
DEHAUGER
DAMALUKAS
FEROSENQVIST
MAERICSSON
ALROSSI
KYSIMPSON
SCDIXON
GRRAHAL
RIVEEKAY
ROGROSJEAN
WIPOWER
CHRASMUSSEN
LOFOSTER
CACOLLET
NOSIEGEL
SAFERRUCCI
STROBB
MISCHUMACHER

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	KYKIRKWOOD	CHLUNDGAARD	ALPALOU	PAWARD	SCMCLAUGHLIN	MAARMSTRONG	JONEWGARDEN	DEHAUGER	DAMALUKAS	FEROSENQVIST	MAERICSSON	ALROSSI
KYKIRKWOOD	—	54	53	58	53	65	67	75	75	77	77	79
CHLUNDGAARD	46	—	49	56	50	62	65	74	75	76	76	80
ALPALOU	47	51	—	55	50	62	65	72	73	75	75	77
PAWARD	42	44	45	—	45	57	61	71	72	73	74	76
SCMCLAUGHLIN	47	50	50	55	—	61	64	71	71	74	73	75
MAARMSTRONG	35	38	38	43	39	—	54	65	66	69	67	72
JONEWGARDEN	33	35	35	39	36	46	—	60	60	62	63	67
DEHAUGER	25	26	28	29	29	35	40	—	51	54	55	61
DAMALUKAS	25	25	27	28	29	34	40	49	—	53	53	59
FEROSENQVIST	23	24	25	27	26	31	38	46	47	—	50	56
MAERICSSON	23	24	25	26	27	33	37	45	47	50	—	55
ALROSSI	21	20	23	24	25	28	33	39	41	44	45	—