Round 2: Good Ranchers 250

Round 02

Good Ranchers 250

OvalResult + Forecast

Venue

Phoenix Raceway

United States

Race Format

Oval

One points race this weekend.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Álex Palou is the clear favourite at 47% — nobody else clears 14%.

OVAL

Phoenix Raceway is an oval — flat-out in traffic at 220 mph — pack dynamics, tire falloff and pit cycles decide it, and one wrong move collects the pack.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 1/3 of the podium — typical miss 5.9 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Kyle Kirkwood

Andretti Global

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P23

Predicted P3

Race Winner

Josef Newgarden

Team Penske

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P23

Predicted P4

David Malukas

Team Penske

Win probability

0.0%

Range P7–P23

Predicted P17

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Palou

47%78%

McLaughlin

14%48%

Kirkwood

7%30%

Newgarden

9%32%

O'Ward

4%19%

Simpson

3%14%

Rosenqvist

2%10%

Armstrong

1%8%

Dixon

1%8%

Lundgaard

1%7%

Grosjean

2%7%

VeeKay

1%6%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Álex Palou Chip Ganassi Racing	47%	78%	P1–P23	17%	Low	P24
2	Scott McLaughlin Team Penske	14%	48%	P1–P23	20%	Low	P8
3	Kyle Kirkwood Andretti Global	7%	30%	P2–P23	17%	Low	P2
4	Josef Newgarden Team Penske	9%	32%	P2–P23	21%	Low	P1
5	Pato O'Ward Arrow McLaren	4%	19%	P2–P22	15%	Low	P4
6	Kyffin Simpson Chip Ganassi Racing	3%	14%	P3–P22	17%	Low	P10
7	Felix Rosenqvist Meyer Shank Racing	2%	10%	P4–P23	17%	Low	P12
8	Marcus Armstrong Meyer Shank Racing	1%	8%	P4–P22	15%	Medium	P5
9	Scott Dixon Chip Ganassi Racing	1%	8%	P4–P22	15%	Medium	P7
10	Christian Lundgaard Arrow McLaren	1%	7%	P4–P22	15%	Medium	P13
11	Romain Grosjean Dale Coyne Racing	2%	7%	P4–P23	18%	Low	P25
12	Rinus VeeKay Juncos Hollinger Racing	1%	6%	P5–P23	17%	Medium	P22
13	Dennis Hauger Dale Coyne Racing	1%	6%	P5–P23	18%	Medium	P15
14	Alexander Rossi ECR	1%	6%	P5–P23	18%	Medium	P6
15	Marcus Ericsson Andretti Global	1%	6%	P5–P23	20%	Medium	P17
16	Santino Ferrucci A.J. Foyt Enterprises	1%	4%	P6–P23	18%	Medium	P11
17	David Malukas Team Penske	1%	3%	P7–P23	17%	High	P3
18	Caio Collet A.J. Foyt Enterprises	1%	2%	P8–P23	18%	High	P19
19	Louis Foster Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	2%	P8–P23	20%	High	P23
20	Graham Rahal Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	1%	P11–P23	14%	High	P9
21	Christian Rasmussen ECR	0%	1%	P12–P23	20%	High	P14
22	Sting Ray Robb Juncos Hollinger Racing	0%	1%	P12–P23	20%	High	P21
23	Will Power Andretti Global	0%	1%	P12–P23	23%	High	P16
24	Mick Schumacher Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	1%	P13–P24	22%	High	P18
25	Nolan Siegel Arrow McLaren	0%	1%	P14–P24	23%	High	P20

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Álex Palou

47.3% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Oval

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Oval

Phoenix Raceway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Oval racing: flat-out in traffic at 220 mph — pack dynamics, tire falloff and pit cycles decide it, and one wrong move collects the pack. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Palou

47%78%

McLaughlin

14%48%

Kirkwood

7%30%

Newgarden

9%32%

O'Ward

4%19%

Simpson

3%14%

Rosenqvist

2%10%

Armstrong

1%8%

Dixon

1%8%

Lundgaard

1%7%

Grosjean

2%7%

VeeKay

1%6%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 0 exact, 10 of 25 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
ALPALOU
SCMCLAUGHLIN
KYKIRKWOOD
JONEWGARDEN
PAWARD
KYSIMPSON
FEROSENQVIST
MAARMSTRONG
SCDIXON
CHLUNDGAARD
ROGROSJEAN
RIVEEKAY
DEHAUGER
ALROSSI
MAERICSSON
SAFERRUCCI
DAMALUKAS
CACOLLET
LOFOSTER
GRRAHAL
CHRASMUSSEN
STROBB
WIPOWER
MISCHUMACHER
NOSIEGEL

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	ALPALOU	SCMCLAUGHLIN	KYKIRKWOOD	JONEWGARDEN	PAWARD	KYSIMPSON	FEROSENQVIST	MAARMSTRONG	SCDIXON	CHLUNDGAARD	ROGROSJEAN	RIVEEKAY
ALPALOU	—	71	77	76	80	81	82	82	82	82	83	83
SCMCLAUGHLIN	29	—	60	60	66	70	74	74	74	75	75	75
KYKIRKWOOD	23	40	—	50	58	64	69	70	71	72	72	74
JONEWGARDEN	24	41	50	—	58	63	67	69	69	70	71	72
PAWARD	20	34	42	42	—	56	64	65	66	66	69	69
KYSIMPSON	19	30	36	37	44	—	56	59	60	59	62	63
FEROSENQVIST	18	26	31	33	36	44	—	52	53	53	56	58
MAARMSTRONG	18	26	30	31	35	41	48	—	51	52	54	57
SCDIXON	18	26	29	31	34	40	47	49	—	52	54	55
CHLUNDGAARD	18	25	28	30	34	41	47	48	48	—	51	55
ROGROSJEAN	18	25	28	29	31	38	44	46	46	49	—	52
RIVEEKAY	17	25	26	28	31	37	42	43	45	45	48	—