Round 18: IndyCar Grand Prix of Monterey

Round 18

IndyCar Grand Prix of Monterey

Road CourseUpcoming Forecast

Venue

WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca

United States

Race Format

Road Course

One points race this weekend.

Status

Scheduled

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Álex Palou is the clear favourite at 29% — nobody else clears 23%.

ROAD COURSE

WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca is a road course — permanent road-course racing — braking zones, tire management and racecraft separate the field.

TITLE

Title fight: Álex Palou (38%) vs Kyle Kirkwood (34%), 25 drivers still mathematically in it.

Model Forecast

Predicted Podium

Prediction published

Christian Lundgaard

Arrow McLaren

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P7

Projected Winner

Álex Palou

Chip Ganassi Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P21

Kyle Kirkwood

Andretti Global

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P8

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Palou

29%70%

Lundgaard

20%60%

Kirkwood

23%61%

Malukas

10%37%

O'Ward

8%30%

Rosenqvist

1%6%

McLaughlin

1%5%

VeeKay

1%5%

Simpson

1%4%

Power

1%5%

Newgarden

1%4%

Dixon

1%3%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence
1	Álex Palou Chip Ganassi Racing	29%	70%	P1–P21	11%	Low
2	Christian Lundgaard Arrow McLaren	20%	60%	P1–P7	9%	High
3	Kyle Kirkwood Andretti Global	23%	61%	P1–P8	10%	High
4	David Malukas Team Penske	10%	37%	P2–P9	10%	High
5	Pato O'Ward Arrow McLaren	8%	30%	P2–P10	9%	High
6	Felix Rosenqvist Meyer Shank Racing	1%	6%	P4–P21	11%	Low
7	Scott McLaughlin Team Penske	1%	5%	P5–P22	12%	Low
8	Rinus VeeKay Juncos Hollinger Racing	1%	5%	P5–P19	10%	Medium
9	Kyffin Simpson Chip Ganassi Racing	1%	4%	P5–P20	10%	Low
10	Will Power Andretti Global	1%	5%	P5–P24	17%	Low
11	Josef Newgarden Team Penske	1%	4%	P5–P23	14%	Low
12	Scott Dixon Chip Ganassi Racing	1%	3%	P6–P20	10%	Medium
13	Graham Rahal Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	2%	P7–P20	10%	Medium
14	Marcus Armstrong Meyer Shank Racing	1%	2%	P7–P20	10%	Medium
15	Marcus Ericsson Andretti Global	0%	2%	P7–P23	14%	Low
16	Caio Collet A.J. Foyt Enterprises	0%	1%	P9–P23	13%	Medium
17	Nolan Siegel Arrow McLaren	0%	1%	P9–P23	17%	Medium
18	Louis Foster Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	1%	P10–P23	13%	Medium
19	Santino Ferrucci A.J. Foyt Enterprises	0%	1%	P10–P23	12%	Medium
20	Alexander Rossi ECR	0%	0%	P11–P23	13%	Medium
21	Christian Rasmussen ECR	0%	0%	P13–P24	18%	High
22	Romain Grosjean Dale Coyne Racing	0%	0%	P15–P23	15%	High
23	Sting Ray Robb Juncos Hollinger Racing	0%	0%	P17–P24	12%	High
24	Dennis Hauger Dale Coyne Racing	0%	0%	P17–P24	11%	High
25	Mick Schumacher Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	0%	P18–P24	11%	High

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Álex Palou

29.4% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Road Course

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Road Course

WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Road Course racing: permanent road-course racing — braking zones, tire management and racecraft separate the field. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Palou

29%70%

Lundgaard

20%60%

Kirkwood

23%61%

Malukas

10%37%

O'Ward

8%30%

Rosenqvist

1%6%

McLaughlin

1%5%

VeeKay

1%5%

Simpson

1%4%

Power

1%5%

Newgarden

1%4%

Dixon

1%3%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
ALPALOU
CHLUNDGAARD
KYKIRKWOOD
DAMALUKAS
PAWARD
FEROSENQVIST
SCMCLAUGHLIN
RIVEEKAY
KYSIMPSON
WIPOWER
JONEWGARDEN
SCDIXON
GRRAHAL
MAARMSTRONG
MAERICSSON
CACOLLET
NOSIEGEL
LOFOSTER
SAFERRUCCI
ALROSSI
CHRASMUSSEN
ROGROSJEAN
STROBB
DEHAUGER
MISCHUMACHER

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	ALPALOU	CHLUNDGAARD	KYKIRKWOOD	DAMALUKAS	PAWARD	FEROSENQVIST	SCMCLAUGHLIN	RIVEEKAY	KYSIMPSON	WIPOWER	JONEWGARDEN	SCDIXON
ALPALOU	—	58	56	70	74	86	87	87	87	87	87	88
CHLUNDGAARD	42	—	48	64	69	87	88	88	88	87	88	89
KYKIRKWOOD	44	52	—	65	70	86	86	87	87	87	87	88
DAMALUKAS	30	36	35	—	56	81	83	84	84	84	84	87
PAWARD	26	31	30	44	—	78	80	81	82	80	82	84
FEROSENQVIST	14	13	14	19	22	—	54	58	58	54	58	65
SCMCLAUGHLIN	13	13	14	17	20	46	—	53	53	50	53	60
RIVEEKAY	13	13	13	16	19	42	47	—	52	47	52	59
KYSIMPSON	13	12	13	16	18	42	47	48	—	48	50	58
WIPOWER	13	13	13	16	20	46	50	53	52	—	53	60
JONEWGARDEN	13	12	13	16	18	42	47	48	50	47	—	57
SCDIXON	12	11	12	13	16	35	40	41	42	40	43	—