Round 16
Snap-on Makers and Fixers 250
Venue
Milwaukee Mile
United States
Race Format
One points race this weekend.
Status
Scheduled
Auto-generated weekend angles
Model favours David Malukas (24%) over Kyle Kirkwood (23%).
Milwaukee Mile is an oval — flat-out in traffic at 220 mph — pack dynamics, tire falloff and pit cycles decide it, and one wrong move collects the pack.
Title fight: Álex Palou (38%) vs Kyle Kirkwood (34%), 25 drivers still mathematically in it.
Model Forecast
Predicted Podium
Win probability
0.0%
Range P1–P22
Win probability
0.0%
Range P1–P22
Win probability
0.0%
Range P1–P22
Probability Layer
Win vs Podium
Win vs podium probability
MalukasKirkwoodO'Ward
Lundgaard
McLaughlin
Palou
Armstrong
Rosenqvist
VeeKay
Newgarden
Dixon
Ericsson| P | Driver | Win | Podium | Range | DNF Risk | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Malukas Team Penske | 24% | 60% | P1–P22 | 15% | Low |
| 2 | Kyle Kirkwood Andretti Global | 23% | 56% | P1–P22 | 15% | Low |
| 3 | Pato O'Ward Arrow McLaren | 11% | 34% | P1–P22 | 13% | Low |
| 4 | Christian Lundgaard Arrow McLaren | 7% | 26% | P2–P22 | 13% | Low |
| 5 | Scott McLaughlin Team Penske | 10% | 31% | P2–P23 | 17% | Low |
| 6 | Álex Palou Chip Ganassi Racing | 7% | 25% | P2–P23 | 16% | Low |
| 7 | Marcus Armstrong Meyer Shank Racing | 3% | 12% | P3–P22 | 15% | Medium |
| 8 | Felix Rosenqvist Meyer Shank Racing | 3% | 10% | P3–P23 | 16% | Low |
| 9 | Rinus VeeKay Juncos Hollinger Racing | 3% | 10% | P4–P22 | 15% | Medium |
| 10 | Josef Newgarden Team Penske | 3% | 11% | P3–P23 | 19% | Low |
| 11 | Scott Dixon Chip Ganassi Racing | 2% | 6% | P5–P22 | 15% | Medium |
| 12 | Marcus Ericsson Andretti Global | 2% | 7% | P4–P23 | 19% | Medium |
| 13 |  Kyffin Simpson Chip Ganassi Racing | 1% | 2% | P8–P22 | 15% | Medium |
| 14 |  Will Power Andretti Global | 1% | 2% | P7–P23 | 21% | Medium |
| 15 |  Santino Ferrucci A.J. Foyt Enterprises | 1% | 2% | P8–P23 | 17% | Medium |
| 16 |  Graham Rahal Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing | 0% | 1% | P10–P22 | 15% | High |
| 17 |  Christian Rasmussen ECR | 0% | 1% | P10–P24 | 22% | Medium |
| 18 |  Romain Grosjean Dale Coyne Racing | 0% | 1% | P11–P23 | 20% | High |
| 19 |  Alexander Rossi ECR | 0% | 1% | P12–P23 | 18% | High |
| 20 |  Louis Foster Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing | 0% | 0% | P12–P23 | 18% | High |
| 21 |  Nolan Siegel Arrow McLaren | 0% | 0% | P12–P24 | 21% | High |
| 22 |  Mick Schumacher Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing | 0% | 0% | P13–P23 | 16% | High |
| 23 |  Caio Collet A.J. Foyt Enterprises | 0% | 0% | P14–P23 | 18% | High |
| 24 |  Sting Ray Robb Juncos Hollinger Racing | 0% | 0% | P15–P23 | 17% | High |
| 25 |  Dennis Hauger Dale Coyne Racing | 0% | 0% | P16–P24 | 16% | High |
Model Forecast
Likeliest Winner
David Malukas
23.9% projected win
High-Confidence Calls
9
Drivers Forecast
25
Track Type
Oval
Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.
Track & Telemetry
Oval
Milwaukee Mile
Circuit layout unavailable
Oval racing: flat-out in traffic at 220 mph — pack dynamics, tire falloff and pit cycles decide it, and one wrong move collects the pack. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.
Charts
Win vs podium probability
MalukasKirkwoodO'WardLundgaardMcLaughlinPalouArmstrongRosenqvistVeeKayNewgardenDixonEricssonWin market by round
Finish-position likelihood
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAMALUKAS | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| KYKIRKWOOD | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| PAWARD | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CHLUNDGAARD | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SCMCLAUGHLIN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ALPALOU | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MAARMSTRONG | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| FEROSENQVIST | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| RIVEEKAY | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| JONEWGARDEN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SCDIXON | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MAERICSSON | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| KYSIMPSON | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| WIPOWER | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SAFERRUCCI | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GRRAHAL | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CHRASMUSSEN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ROGROSJEAN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ALROSSI | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| LOFOSTER | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NOSIEGEL | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MISCHUMACHER | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CACOLLET | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| STROBB | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| DEHAUGER |
Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions.
Head-to-head — P(row beats column)
| beats ↓ / → | DAMALUKAS | KYKIRKWOOD | PAWARD | CHLUNDGAARD | SCMCLAUGHLIN | ALPALOU | MAARMSTRONG | FEROSENQVIST | RIVEEKAY | JONEWGARDEN | SCDIXON | MAERICSSON |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAMALUKAS | — | 52 | 66 | 70 | 67 | 70 | 79 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 83 | 82 |
| KYKIRKWOOD | 48 | — | 64 | 68 | 66 | 69 | 77 | 79 | 79 | 79 | 81 | 82 |
| PAWARD | 34 | 36 | — | 55 | 52 | 57 | 69 | 72 | 73 | 72 | 78 | 76 |
| CHLUNDGAARD | 30 | 32 | 45 | — | 47 | 52 | 66 | 68 | 69 | 68 | 75 | 74 |
| SCMCLAUGHLIN | 33 | 34 | 48 | 53 | — | 55 | 67 | 68 | 70 | 69 | 74 | 74 |
| ALPALOU | 30 | 31 | 43 | 49 | 45 | — | 64 | 66 | 67 | 66 | 73 | 72 |
| MAARMSTRONG | 21 | 23 | 31 | 34 | 33 | 36 | — | 53 | 54 | 54 | 62 | 61 |
| FEROSENQVIST | 20 | 21 | 28 | 32 | 32 | 34 | 47 | — | 53 | 51 | 59 | 59 |
| RIVEEKAY | 20 | 21 | 27 | 31 | 30 | 33 | 46 | 47 | — | 49 | 58 | 57 |
| JONEWGARDEN | 20 | 21 | 28 | 32 | 31 | 34 | 46 | 49 | 51 | — | 59 | 58 |
| SCDIXON | 17 | 19 | 22 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 38 | 41 | 42 | 41 | — | 50 |
| MAERICSSON | 18 | 18 | 24 | 26 | 26 | 28 | 39 | 41 | 43 | 42 | 50 | — |