Round 14: Ontario Honda Dealers Indy at Markham

Round 14

Ontario Honda Dealers Indy at Markham

Street CircuitUpcoming Forecast

Venue

Streets of Markham

United States

Race Format

Street Circuit

One points race this weekend.

Status

Scheduled

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Álex Palou is the clear favourite at 29% — nobody else clears 23%.

STREET CIRCUIT

Streets of Markham is a street circuit — temporary walls with zero margin — track position rules, and cautions can reshuffle everything.

TITLE

Title fight: Álex Palou (38%) vs Kyle Kirkwood (34%), 25 drivers still mathematically in it.

Model Forecast

Predicted Podium

Prediction published

Álex Palou

Chip Ganassi Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P22

Projected Winner

Christian Lundgaard

Arrow McLaren

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P21

Kyle Kirkwood

Andretti Global

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P22

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Lundgaard

20%59%

Palou

29%69%

Kirkwood

23%60%

Malukas

10%37%

O'Ward

8%30%

Rosenqvist

1%6%

McLaughlin

1%6%

VeeKay

1%5%

Simpson

1%5%

Power

1%5%

Newgarden

1%4%

Dixon

1%3%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence
1	Christian Lundgaard Arrow McLaren	20%	59%	P1–P21	12%	Low
2	Álex Palou Chip Ganassi Racing	29%	69%	P1–P22	14%	Low
3	Kyle Kirkwood Andretti Global	23%	60%	P1–P22	13%	Low
4	David Malukas Team Penske	10%	37%	P2–P21	13%	Low
5	Pato O'Ward Arrow McLaren	8%	30%	P2–P22	12%	Low
6	Felix Rosenqvist Meyer Shank Racing	1%	6%	P4–P23	14%	Low
7	Scott McLaughlin Team Penske	1%	6%	P5–P23	15%	Medium
8	Rinus VeeKay Juncos Hollinger Racing	1%	5%	P5–P22	13%	Medium
9	Kyffin Simpson Chip Ganassi Racing	1%	5%	P5–P22	13%	Medium
10	Will Power Andretti Global	1%	5%	P5–P23	20%	Medium
11	Josef Newgarden Team Penske	1%	4%	P5–P23	17%	Medium
12	Scott Dixon Chip Ganassi Racing	1%	3%	P6–P22	13%	Medium
13	Graham Rahal Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	2%	P6–P22	13%	Medium
14	Marcus Armstrong Meyer Shank Racing	1%	2%	P7–P22	13%	Medium
15	Marcus Ericsson Andretti Global	0%	2%	P7–P23	17%	Medium
16	Caio Collet A.J. Foyt Enterprises	0%	1%	P9–P23	16%	High
17	Nolan Siegel Arrow McLaren	0%	1%	P9–P23	20%	High
18	Louis Foster Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	1%	P10–P23	16%	High
19	Santino Ferrucci A.J. Foyt Enterprises	0%	1%	P10–P23	15%	High
20	Alexander Rossi ECR	0%	1%	P10–P23	16%	High
21	Christian Rasmussen ECR	0%	0%	P12–P24	21%	High
22	Romain Grosjean Dale Coyne Racing	0%	0%	P15–P23	18%	High
23	Sting Ray Robb Juncos Hollinger Racing	0%	0%	P16–P24	15%	High
24	Dennis Hauger Dale Coyne Racing	0%	0%	P16–P24	14%	High
25	Mick Schumacher Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	0%	P17–P24	14%	High

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Christian Lundgaard

20.2% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Street Circuit

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Street Circuit

Streets of Markham

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Street Circuit racing: temporary walls with zero margin — track position rules, and cautions can reshuffle everything. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Lundgaard

20%59%

Palou

29%69%

Kirkwood

23%60%

Malukas

10%37%

O'Ward

8%30%

Rosenqvist

1%6%

McLaughlin

1%6%

VeeKay

1%5%

Simpson

1%5%

Power

1%5%

Newgarden

1%4%

Dixon

1%3%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
CHLUNDGAARD
ALPALOU
KYKIRKWOOD
DAMALUKAS
PAWARD
FEROSENQVIST
SCMCLAUGHLIN
RIVEEKAY
KYSIMPSON
WIPOWER
JONEWGARDEN
SCDIXON
GRRAHAL
MAARMSTRONG
MAERICSSON
CACOLLET
NOSIEGEL
LOFOSTER
SAFERRUCCI
ALROSSI
CHRASMUSSEN
ROGROSJEAN
STROBB
DEHAUGER
MISCHUMACHER

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	CHLUNDGAARD	ALPALOU	KYKIRKWOOD	DAMALUKAS	PAWARD	FEROSENQVIST	SCMCLAUGHLIN	RIVEEKAY	KYSIMPSON	WIPOWER	JONEWGARDEN	SCDIXON
CHLUNDGAARD	—	43	48	63	68	85	85	85	85	85	86	87
ALPALOU	57	—	56	68	72	84	84	84	85	84	85	85
KYKIRKWOOD	52	44	—	64	69	84	84	84	85	85	85	86
DAMALUKAS	37	32	36	—	56	79	80	82	82	82	82	84
PAWARD	32	28	31	44	—	77	78	79	80	78	80	83
FEROSENQVIST	15	16	16	21	23	—	53	57	57	53	57	63
SCMCLAUGHLIN	15	16	16	20	22	47	—	53	53	50	54	60
RIVEEKAY	15	16	16	18	21	43	47	—	51	47	52	59
KYSIMPSON	15	15	15	18	20	43	47	49	—	48	50	58
WIPOWER	15	16	15	18	22	47	50	53	52	—	53	59
JONEWGARDEN	14	15	15	18	20	43	46	48	50	47	—	57
SCDIXON	13	15	14	16	17	37	40	41	42	41	43	—