Round 11: Honda Indy 200 at Mid-Ohio

Round 11

Honda Indy 200 at Mid-Ohio

Road CourseResult + Forecast

Venue

Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course

United States

Race Format

Road Course

One points race this weekend.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Álex Palou is the clear favourite at 37% — nobody else clears 17%.

ROAD COURSE

Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course is a road course — permanent road-course racing — braking zones, tire management and racecraft separate the field.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 2/3 of the podium — typical miss 5.2 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Christian Lundgaard

Arrow McLaren

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P8

Race Winner

Pato O'Ward

Arrow McLaren

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P13

Predicted P5

Kyle Kirkwood

Andretti Global

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P21

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Palou

37%77%

Lundgaard

15%52%

Kirkwood

17%54%

Malukas

14%47%

O'Ward

3%13%

Simpson

3%11%

Rosenqvist

2%10%

McLaughlin

2%10%

Dixon

1%5%

Ericsson

1%4%

Power

1%3%

Newgarden

1%3%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Álex Palou Chip Ganassi Racing	37%	77%	P1–P22	12%	Low	P5
2	Christian Lundgaard Arrow McLaren	15%	52%	P1–P8	9%	High	P2
3	Kyle Kirkwood Andretti Global	17%	54%	P1–P21	10%	Low	P3
4	David Malukas Team Penske	14%	47%	P1–P18	10%	Medium	P8
5	Pato O'Ward Arrow McLaren	3%	13%	P3–P13	9%	High	P1
6	Kyffin Simpson Chip Ganassi Racing	3%	11%	P3–P20	10%	Medium	P15
7	Felix Rosenqvist Meyer Shank Racing	2%	10%	P3–P22	12%	Low	P13
8	Scott McLaughlin Team Penske	2%	10%	P3–P23	13%	Low	P16
9	Scott Dixon Chip Ganassi Racing	1%	5%	P5–P18	10%	Medium	P17
10	Marcus Ericsson Andretti Global	1%	4%	P5–P23	15%	Low	P21
11	Will Power Andretti Global	1%	3%	P6–P23	17%	Medium	P6
12	Josef Newgarden Team Penske	1%	3%	P6–P23	15%	Medium	P9
13	Graham Rahal Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	1%	2%	P7–P21	10%	Medium	P12
14	Marcus Armstrong Meyer Shank Racing	0%	1%	P7–P21	10%	Medium	P14
15	Rinus VeeKay Juncos Hollinger Racing	0%	2%	P8–P21	10%	Medium	P4
16	Louis Foster Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	1%	P8–P23	14%	Medium	P18
17	Alexander Rossi ECR	0%	2%	P8–P23	14%	Medium	P20
18	Santino Ferrucci A.J. Foyt Enterprises	0%	1%	P9–P23	13%	Medium	P19
19	Dennis Hauger Dale Coyne Racing	0%	0%	P13–P23	11%	High	P25
20	Caio Collet A.J. Foyt Enterprises	0%	0%	P13–P23	13%	High	P11
21	Romain Grosjean Dale Coyne Racing	0%	0%	P13–P23	15%	High	P23
22	Nolan Siegel Arrow McLaren	0%	0%	P14–P24	17%	High	P10
23	Mick Schumacher Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	0%	P14–P23	11%	High	P24
24	Sting Ray Robb Juncos Hollinger Racing	0%	0%	P16–P24	13%	High	P22
25	Christian Rasmussen ECR	0%	0%	P19–P24	18%	High	P7

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Álex Palou

37.4% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Road Course

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Road Course

Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Road Course racing: permanent road-course racing — braking zones, tire management and racecraft separate the field. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Palou

37%77%

Lundgaard

15%52%

Kirkwood

17%54%

Malukas

14%47%

O'Ward

3%13%

Simpson

3%11%

Rosenqvist

2%10%

McLaughlin

2%10%

Dixon

1%5%

Ericsson

1%4%

Power

1%3%

Newgarden

1%3%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 3 exact, 11 of 25 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
ALPALOU
CHLUNDGAARD
KYKIRKWOOD
DAMALUKAS
PAWARD
KYSIMPSON
FEROSENQVIST
SCMCLAUGHLIN
SCDIXON
MAERICSSON
WIPOWER
JONEWGARDEN
GRRAHAL
MAARMSTRONG
RIVEEKAY
LOFOSTER
ALROSSI
SAFERRUCCI
DEHAUGER
CACOLLET
ROGROSJEAN
NOSIEGEL
MISCHUMACHER
STROBB
CHRASMUSSEN

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	ALPALOU	CHLUNDGAARD	KYKIRKWOOD	DAMALUKAS	PAWARD	KYSIMPSON	FEROSENQVIST	SCMCLAUGHLIN	SCDIXON	MAERICSSON	WIPOWER	JONEWGARDEN
ALPALOU	—	67	65	70	84	84	85	85	87	88	88	88
CHLUNDGAARD	33	—	49	53	78	81	81	82	87	87	89	89
KYKIRKWOOD	35	51	—	55	78	79	80	81	85	86	87	87
DAMALUKAS	31	47	45	—	76	77	79	78	85	85	87	88
PAWARD	17	22	23	24	—	54	56	56	70	72	77	78
KYSIMPSON	16	19	21	23	46	—	52	51	66	67	74	74
FEROSENQVIST	15	19	20	21	44	48	—	49	63	66	72	73
SCMCLAUGHLIN	15	18	19	22	45	49	51	—	64	66	73	72
SCDIXON	13	13	15	15	30	34	37	36	—	54	61	63
MAERICSSON	12	13	14	15	28	33	34	34	46	—	57	58
WIPOWER	12	11	13	13	23	26	28	27	39	43	—	50
JONEWGARDEN	12	11	13	12	22	26	27	28	37	42	50	—