Round 10: XPEL Grand Prix at Road America

Round 10

XPEL Grand Prix at Road America

Road CourseResult + Forecast

Venue

Road America

United States

Race Format

Road Course

One points race this weekend.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Álex Palou is the clear favourite at 36% — nobody else clears 28%.

ROAD COURSE

Road America is a road course — permanent road-course racing — braking zones, tire management and racecraft separate the field.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 1/3 of the podium — typical miss 6.4 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

David Malukas

Team Penske

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P19

Predicted P4

Race Winner

Christian Lundgaard

Arrow McLaren

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P11

Predicted P3

Will Power

Andretti Global

Win probability

0.0%

Range P11–P23

Predicted P17

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Palou

36%77%

Kirkwood

28%71%

Lundgaard

8%30%

Malukas

6%26%

O'Ward

5%20%

Rahal

3%12%

Newgarden

3%14%

Armstrong

2%9%

Rosenqvist

2%9%

McLaughlin

1%7%

Dixon

1%4%

Ericsson

1%6%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Álex Palou Chip Ganassi Racing	36%	77%	P1–P22	12%	Low	P5
2	Kyle Kirkwood Andretti Global	28%	71%	P1–P21	10%	Low	P10
3	Christian Lundgaard Arrow McLaren	8%	30%	P2–P11	9%	High	P1
4	David Malukas Team Penske	6%	26%	P2–P19	10%	Low	P2
5	Pato O'Ward Arrow McLaren	5%	20%	P2–P13	9%	High	P12
6	Graham Rahal Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	3%	12%	P3–P15	9%	Medium	P23
7	Josef Newgarden Team Penske	3%	14%	P3–P23	15%	Low	P22
8	Marcus Armstrong Meyer Shank Racing	2%	9%	P4–P16	9%	Medium	P24
9	Felix Rosenqvist Meyer Shank Racing	2%	9%	P4–P22	12%	Low	P8
10	Scott McLaughlin Team Penske	1%	7%	P4–P23	13%	Low	P7
11	Scott Dixon Chip Ganassi Racing	1%	4%	P5–P18	10%	Medium	P11
12	Marcus Ericsson Andretti Global	1%	6%	P5–P23	15%	Low	P13
13	Rinus VeeKay Juncos Hollinger Racing	1%	4%	P6–P20	10%	Medium	P18
14	Kyffin Simpson Chip Ganassi Racing	1%	4%	P5–P20	10%	Medium	P4
15	Louis Foster Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	2%	P7–P23	14%	Low	P14
16	Dennis Hauger Dale Coyne Racing	0%	1%	P9–P22	12%	Medium	P20
17	Will Power Andretti Global	0%	1%	P11–P23	18%	Medium	P3
18	Nolan Siegel Arrow McLaren	0%	1%	P11–P24	18%	Medium	P21
19	Santino Ferrucci A.J. Foyt Enterprises	0%	1%	P12–P23	13%	High	P9
20	Alexander Rossi ECR	0%	1%	P13–P23	14%	High	P6
21	Romain Grosjean Dale Coyne Racing	0%	0%	P14–P24	16%	High	P15
22	Caio Collet A.J. Foyt Enterprises	0%	0%	P15–P24	14%	High	P16
23	Sting Ray Robb Juncos Hollinger Racing	0%	0%	P15–P24	13%	High	P19
24	Mick Schumacher Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	0%	0%	P16–P24	12%	High	P17
25	Christian Rasmussen ECR	0%	0%	P17–P24	18%	High	P25

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Álex Palou

36.1% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Road Course

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Road Course

Road America

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Road Course racing: permanent road-course racing — braking zones, tire management and racecraft separate the field. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Palou

36%77%

Kirkwood

28%71%

Lundgaard

8%30%

Malukas

6%26%

O'Ward

5%20%

Rahal

3%12%

Newgarden

3%14%

Armstrong

2%9%

Rosenqvist

2%9%

McLaughlin

1%7%

Dixon

1%4%

Ericsson

1%6%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 2 exact, 9 of 25 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
ALPALOU
KYKIRKWOOD
CHLUNDGAARD
DAMALUKAS
PAWARD
GRRAHAL
JONEWGARDEN
MAARMSTRONG
FEROSENQVIST
SCMCLAUGHLIN
SCDIXON
MAERICSSON
RIVEEKAY
KYSIMPSON
LOFOSTER
DEHAUGER
WIPOWER
NOSIEGEL
SAFERRUCCI
ALROSSI
ROGROSJEAN
CACOLLET
STROBB
MISCHUMACHER
CHRASMUSSEN

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	ALPALOU	KYKIRKWOOD	CHLUNDGAARD	DAMALUKAS	PAWARD	GRRAHAL	JONEWGARDEN	MAARMSTRONG	FEROSENQVIST	SCMCLAUGHLIN	SCDIXON	MAERICSSON
ALPALOU	—	55	76	79	81	84	83	85	85	86	87	87
KYKIRKWOOD	45	—	74	76	78	83	83	85	85	87	87	87
CHLUNDGAARD	24	26	—	53	59	71	67	74	75	79	83	81
DAMALUKAS	21	24	47	—	55	66	64	70	72	76	80	77
PAWARD	19	22	41	45	—	63	61	66	69	73	78	76
GRRAHAL	16	17	29	34	37	—	49	55	57	63	69	66
JONEWGARDEN	17	17	33	36	39	51	—	55	58	62	68	66
MAARMSTRONG	15	15	26	30	34	45	45	—	54	59	66	62
FEROSENQVIST	15	15	25	28	31	43	42	46	—	54	61	58
SCMCLAUGHLIN	14	13	21	24	27	37	38	41	46	—	57	54
SCDIXON	13	13	17	20	22	31	32	34	39	43	—	48
MAERICSSON	13	13	19	23	24	34	34	38	42	46	52	—