Round 1: Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg

Round 01

Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg

Street CircuitResult + Forecast

Venue

Streets of St. Petersburg

United States

Race Format

Street Circuit

One points race this weekend.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Álex Palou is the clear favourite at 47% — nobody else clears 10%.

STREET CIRCUIT

Streets of St. Petersburg is a street circuit — temporary walls with zero margin — track position rules, and cautions can reshuffle everything.

VERDICT

The forecast called the winner, had 2/3 of the podium — typical miss 6.2 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Scott McLaughlin

Team Penske

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P23

Predicted P6

Race Winner

Álex Palou

Chip Ganassi Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P23

Christian Lundgaard

Arrow McLaren

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P22

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Palou

47%78%

Dixon

10%39%

Lundgaard

8%33%

Armstrong

5%25%

Power

4%18%

McLaughlin

4%15%

Kirkwood

3%11%

Rossi

3%12%

Rahal

2%9%

O'Ward

2%8%

Rosenqvist

2%9%

Rasmussen

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Álex Palou Chip Ganassi Racing	47%	78%	P1–P23	16%	Low	P1
2	Scott Dixon Chip Ganassi Racing	10%	39%	P1–P21	13%	Low	P23
3	Christian Lundgaard Arrow McLaren	8%	33%	P2–P22	14%	Low	P3
4	Marcus Armstrong Meyer Shank Racing	5%	25%	P2–P22	14%	Low	P11
5	Will Power Andretti Global	4%	18%	P2–P23	21%	Low	P22
6	Scott McLaughlin Team Penske	4%	15%	P3–P23	19%	Low	P2
7	Kyle Kirkwood Andretti Global	3%	11%	P3–P23	16%	Low	P4
8	Alexander Rossi ECR	3%	12%	P3–P23	17%	Low	P16
9	Graham Rahal Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	2%	9%	P4–P22	13%	Medium	P18
10	Pato O'Ward Arrow McLaren	2%	8%	P4–P22	14%	Medium	P5
11	Felix Rosenqvist Meyer Shank Racing	2%	9%	P4–P22	16%	Medium	P12
12	Christian Rasmussen ECR	2%	7%	P4–P23	19%	Medium	P19
13	Kyffin Simpson Chip Ganassi Racing	1%	4%	P6–P23	16%	High	P15
14	Louis Foster Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	1%	4%	P6–P23	19%	High	P14
15	David Malukas Team Penske	1%	4%	P6–P23	16%	High	P13
16	Rinus VeeKay Juncos Hollinger Racing	1%	4%	P6–P23	16%	High	P9
17	Caio Collet A.J. Foyt Enterprises	1%	3%	P7–P23	17%	High	P17
18	Dennis Hauger Dale Coyne Racing	0%	2%	P7–P23	17%	High	P10
19	Josef Newgarden Team Penske	1%	3%	P7–P24	21%	High	P7
20	Mick Schumacher Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	1%	2%	P8–P23	17%	High	P25
21	Nolan Siegel Arrow McLaren	1%	3%	P8–P24	22%	High	P20
22	Marcus Ericsson Andretti Global	0%	2%	P9–P23	19%	High	P6
23	Romain Grosjean Dale Coyne Racing	0%	2%	P9–P23	17%	High	P8
24	Sting Ray Robb Juncos Hollinger Racing	0%	2%	P9–P23	19%	High	P21
25	Santino Ferrucci A.J. Foyt Enterprises	0%	1%	P11–P23	16%	High	P24

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Álex Palou

47.5% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Street Circuit

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Street Circuit

Streets of St. Petersburg

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Street Circuit racing: temporary walls with zero margin — track position rules, and cautions can reshuffle everything. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Palou

47%78%

Dixon

10%39%

Lundgaard

8%33%

Armstrong

5%25%

Power

4%18%

McLaughlin

4%15%

Kirkwood

3%11%

Rossi

3%12%

Rahal

2%9%

O'Ward

2%8%

Rosenqvist

2%9%

Rasmussen

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 4 exact, 11 of 25 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
ALPALOU
SCDIXON
CHLUNDGAARD
MAARMSTRONG
WIPOWER
SCMCLAUGHLIN
KYKIRKWOOD
ALROSSI
GRRAHAL
PAWARD
FEROSENQVIST
CHRASMUSSEN
KYSIMPSON
LOFOSTER
DAMALUKAS
RIVEEKAY
CACOLLET
DEHAUGER
JONEWGARDEN
MISCHUMACHER
NOSIEGEL
MAERICSSON
ROGROSJEAN
STROBB
SAFERRUCCI

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	ALPALOU	SCDIXON	CHLUNDGAARD	MAARMSTRONG	WIPOWER	SCMCLAUGHLIN	KYKIRKWOOD	ALROSSI	GRRAHAL	PAWARD	FEROSENQVIST	CHRASMUSSEN
ALPALOU	—	74	76	78	81	81	82	82	83	83	83	84
SCDIXON	26	—	54	61	68	71	74	75	77	78	78	79
CHLUNDGAARD	25	46	—	57	64	66	70	71	75	74	74	76
MAARMSTRONG	22	39	43	—	59	60	66	65	69	70	70	71
WIPOWER	19	32	36	41	—	52	57	57	61	61	61	63
SCMCLAUGHLIN	19	29	34	40	48	—	55	56	59	60	60	62
KYKIRKWOOD	18	26	30	34	43	45	—	50	55	56	55	58
ALROSSI	18	25	29	35	43	44	50	—	54	55	55	58
GRRAHAL	17	23	25	31	39	41	45	46	—	51	51	54
PAWARD	17	22	26	30	39	40	44	45	49	—	51	52
FEROSENQVIST	17	22	26	30	39	40	45	45	49	49	—	53
CHRASMUSSEN	16	21	24	29	37	38	42	42	46	48	47	—