Round 1: Australia — RaceIQ F3

Round 01

Australia

Sprint + FeatureResult + Forecast

Venue

Australia

Weekend Format

FeatureSprint

Two scored races each round.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Wide-open feature race: L. Sharp leads the win market at just 4%, with B. Del Pino right behind on 4%.

VERDICT

The feature race forecast missed the winner, had 0/3 of the podium — typical miss 10.4 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

F. Slater

TRIDENT

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P27

Predicted P19

Race Winner

U. Ugochukwu

Campos Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P4–P27

Predicted P25

T. Kato

ART Grand Prix

Win probability

0.0%

Range P4–P28

Predicted P27

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Nakamura

4%11%

McLaughlin

3%10%

Shin

3%10%

Pino

4%11%

Sharp

4%11%

4%10%

Deligny

3%9%

Lacorte

3%9%

Clerot

3%10%

Badoer

4%10%

Hanna

3%10%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	Confidence	Actual
1	J. Nakamura Hitech TGR	4%	11%	P3–P27	High	P9
2	F. McLaughlin Hitech TGR	3%	10%	P3–P27	High	P14
3	W. Shin Hitech TGR	3%	10%	P3–P28	Low	—
4	B. Del Pino Van Amersfoort Racing	4%	11%	P3–P28	Low	P4
5	L. Sharp PREMA Racing	4%	11%	P3–P28	Low	—
6	C. Ho Rodin Motorsport	4%	10%	P3–P27	High	P21
7	K. Le ART Grand Prix	4%	10%	P3–P28	Low	—
8	E. Deligny Van Amersfoort Racing	3%	9%	P4–P27	High	P6
9	N. Lacorte DAMS Lucas Oil	3%	9%	P4–P27	High	P25
10	P. Clerot Rodin Motorsport	3%	10%	P3–P27	High	P8
11	B. Badoer Rodin Motorsport	4%	10%	P3–P28	Low	P16
12	S. Hanna AIX Racing	3%	10%	P3–P27	High	—
13	N. Strømsted TRIDENT	3%	11%	P3–P27	High	P23
14	M. De Palo TRIDENT	3%	10%	P4–P27	High	P22
15	G. Xie DAMS Lucas Oil	3%	10%	P3–P28	Low	P19
16	N. Bhirombhakdi DAMS Lucas Oil	3%	10%	P4–P28	High	—
17	T. Naël Campos Racing	3%	10%	P4–P27	High	P12
18	Y. David AIX Racing	3%	10%	P4–P28	High	P20
19	F. Slater TRIDENT	3%	10%	P3–P27	High	P2
20	M. Colnaghi MP Motorsport	4%	10%	P3–P28	Low	P10
21	J. Garfias PREMA Racing	3%	10%	P4–P28	High	P24
22	J. Wharton PREMA Racing	4%	10%	P4–P28	High	—
23	F. Barrichello AIX Racing	3%	10%	P4–P28	High	P18
24	T. Taponen MP Motorsport	3%	10%	P3–P27	High	P13
25	U. Ugochukwu Campos Racing	4%	10%	P4–P27	High	P1
26	E. Rivera Campos Racing	3%	10%	P4–P28	High	—
27	T. Kato ART Grand Prix	3%	9%	P4–P28	High	P3
28	M. Gładysz ART Grand Prix	3%	9%	P4–P28	High	P5
29	A. Giusti MP Motorsport	3%	9%	P4–P28	High	P15
30	H. Yamakoshi Van Amersfoort Racing	3%	9%	P4–P27	High	P11

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

J. Nakamura

3.7% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Race

Feature race

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Circuit & Telemetry

Circuit

Australia

Vector layout

F3 races the same circuits as the lead category; layout geometry is shared. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, sector times, tyre stints) isn’t published for F3, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Nakamura

4%11%

McLaughlin

3%10%

Shin

3%10%

Pino

4%11%

Sharp

4%11%

4%10%

Deligny

3%9%

Lacorte

3%9%

Clerot

3%10%

Badoer

4%10%

Hanna

3%10%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round — feature race

Predicted vs actual — feature race

Flatter lines = closer calls. 1 exact, 5 of 23 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30
NAK
MCL
SHI
BDE
SHA
HO
LE
EDE
LAC
CLE
BAD
HAN
STR
DEP
XIE
BHI
NAE
DAV
SLA
COL
GAR
WHA
BAR
TAP
UGO
RIV
KAT
GLA
GIU
YAM

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	NAK	MCL	SHI	BDE	SHA	HO	LE	EDE	LAC	CLE
NAK	—	51	50	50	50	50	51	52	50	50
MCL	49	—	50	49	51	50	51	50	50	50
SHI	50	50	—	51	51	50	50	50	50	50
BDE	50	51	49	—	50	50	50	51	51	51
SHA	50	49	49	50	—	50	50	50	51	50
HO	50	50	50	50	50	—	50	49	50	51
LE	49	49	50	50	50	50	—	50	50	50
EDE	48	50	50	49	50	51	50	—	50	50
LAC	50	50	50	49	49	50	50	50	—	50
CLE	50	50	50	49	50	49	50	50	50	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30
NAK
MCL
SHI
BDE
SHA
HO
LE
EDE
LAC
CLE
BAD
HAN
STR
DEP
XIE
BHI
NAE
DAV
SLA
COL
GAR
WHA
BAR
TAP
UGO
RIV
KAT
GLA
GIU
YAM

beats ↓ / →	NAK	MCL	SHI	BDE	SHA	HO	LE	EDE	LAC	CLE
NAK	—	51	50	50	50	50	51	52	50	50
MCL	49	—	50	49	51	50	51	50	50	50
SHI	50	50	—	51	51	50	50	50	50	50
BDE	50	51	49	—	50	50	50	51	51	51
SHA	50	49	49	50	—	50	50	50	51	50
HO	50	50	50	50	50	—	50	49	50	51
LE	49	49	50	50	50	50	—	50	50	50
EDE	48	50	50	49	50	51	50	—	50	50
LAC	50	50	50	49	49	50	50	50	—	50
CLE	50	50	50	49	50	49	50	50	50	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30
NAK
MCL
SHI
BDE
SHA
HO
LE
EDE
LAC
CLE
BAD
HAN
STR
DEP
XIE
BHI
NAE
DAV
SLA
COL
GAR
WHA
BAR
TAP
UGO
RIV
KAT
GLA
GIU
YAM

beats ↓ / →	NAK	MCL	SHI	BDE	SHA	HO	LE	EDE	LAC	CLE
NAK	—	51	50	50	50	50	51	52	50	50
MCL	49	—	50	49	51	50	51	50	50	50
SHI	50	50	—	51	51	50	50	50	50	50
BDE	50	51	49	—	50	50	50	51	51	51
SHA	50	49	49	50	—	50	50	50	51	50
HO	50	50	50	50	50	—	50	49	50	51
LE	49	49	50	50	50	50	—	50	50	50
EDE	48	50	50	49	50	51	50	—	50	50
LAC	50	50	50	49	49	50	50	50	—	50
CLE	50	50	50	49	50	49	50	50	50	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30
NAK
MCL
SHI
BDE
SHA
HO
LE
EDE
LAC
CLE
BAD
HAN
STR
DEP
XIE
BHI
NAE
DAV
SLA
COL
GAR
WHA
BAR
TAP
UGO
RIV
KAT
GLA
GIU
YAM

beats ↓ / →	NAK	MCL	SHI	BDE	SHA	HO	LE	EDE	LAC	CLE
NAK	—	51	50	50	50	50	51	52	50	50
MCL	49	—	50	49	51	50	51	50	50	50
SHI	50	50	—	51	51	50	50	50	50	50
BDE	50	51	49	—	50	50	50	51	51	51
SHA	50	49	49	50	—	50	50	50	51	50
HO	50	50	50	50	50	—	50	49	50	51
LE	49	49	50	50	50	50	—	50	50	50
EDE	48	50	50	49	50	51	50	—	50	50
LAC	50	50	50	49	49	50	50	50	—	50
CLE	50	50	50	49	50	49	50	50	50	—