Round 5: Spain — RaceIQ F2

Round 05

Spain

Sprint + FeatureResult + Forecast

Venue

Spain

Weekend Format

FeatureSprint

Two scored races each round.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Model favours Martinius Stenshorne (19%) over Alex Dunne (18%) in the feature race.

VERDICT

The feature race forecast missed the winner, had 2/3 of the podium — typical miss 4.7 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Alex Dunne

Rodin Motorsport

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P8

Race Winner

Rafael Câmara

Invicta Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P15

Predicted P9

Gabriele Minì

MP Motorsport

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P9

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Stenshorne

19%51%

Dunne

18%50%

Minì

12%40%

Beganovic

10%30%

León

9%28%

Tsolov

7%21%

Miyata

4%13%

Maini

4%13%

Câmara

3%10%

Bilinski

2%8%

Dürksen

2%8%

Montoya

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	Confidence	Actual
1	Martinius Stenshorne Rodin Motorsport	19%	51%	P1–P8	High	P17
2	Alex Dunne Rodin Motorsport	18%	50%	P1–P8	High	P2
3	Gabriele Minì MP Motorsport	12%	40%	P1–P9	High	P3
4	Dino Beganovic DAMS Lucas Oil	10%	30%	P2–P10	High	P6
5	Noel León Campos Racing	9%	28%	P2–P11	Medium	P8
6	Nikola Tsolov Campos Racing	7%	21%	P2–P12	Medium	P4
7	Ritomo Miyata Hitech TGR	4%	13%	P3–P14	Medium	P18
8	Kush Maini ART Grand Prix	4%	13%	P3–P14	Medium	P9
9	Rafael Câmara Invicta Racing	3%	10%	P3–P15	Low	P1
10	Roman Bilinski DAMS Lucas Oil	2%	8%	P4–P16	Low	P10
11	Joshua Dürksen Invicta Racing	2%	8%	P4–P16	Low	P14
12	Sebastián Montoya PREMA Racing	2%	7%	P5–P17	Low	P16
13	Laurens van Hoepen TRIDENT	2%	6%	P5–P16	Medium	P5
14	Tasanapol Inthraphuvasak ART Grand Prix	1%	5%	P6–P17	Medium	P12
15	Oliver Goethe MP Motorsport	1%	3%	P7–P18	Medium	—
16	Enzo Fittipaldi AIX Racing	1%	3%	P7–P18	Medium	P19
17	Cian Herta Hitech TGR	0%	1%	P12–P20	High	P15
18	Mari Boya PREMA Racing	0%	1%	P12–P20	High	P21
19	Nicola Varrone Van Amersfoort Racing	0%	1%	P15–P21	High	P13
20	Callum Shields AIX Racing	0%	0%	P16–P22	High	P20
21	Rafael Villagómez Van Amersfoort Racing	0%	0%	P17–P22	High	P11
22	John Bennett TRIDENT	0%	0%	P17–P22	High	P7

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Martinius Stenshorne

18.9% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Race

Feature race

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Circuit & Telemetry

Circuit

Spain

Vector layout

F2 races the same circuits as the lead category; layout geometry is shared. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, sector times, tyre stints) isn’t published for F2, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Stenshorne

19%51%

Dunne

18%50%

Minì

12%40%

Beganovic

10%30%

León

9%28%

Tsolov

7%21%

Miyata

4%13%

Maini

4%13%

Câmara

3%10%

Bilinski

2%8%

Dürksen

2%8%

Montoya

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round — feature race

Predicted vs actual — feature race

Flatter lines = closer calls. 4 exact, 13 of 21 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22
STE
DUN
MIN
BEG
LEO
TSO
MIY
MAI
CAM
BIL
DUR
MON
VAN
INT
GOE
FIT
HER
BOY
VAR
SHI
VIL
BEN

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	STE	DUN	MIN	BEG	LEO	TSO	MIY	MAI	CAM	BIL
STE	—	51	59	66	67	74	82	84	85	88
DUN	49	—	59	66	66	73	82	83	86	88
MIN	41	41	—	58	58	66	76	78	81	84
BEG	34	34	42	—	49	57	70	72	75	79
LEO	33	34	42	51	—	57	70	71	74	78
TSO	26	27	34	43	43	—	64	65	69	73
MIY	18	18	24	30	30	36	—	52	55	61
MAI	16	17	22	28	29	35	48	—	54	59
CAM	15	14	19	25	26	31	45	46	—	56
BIL	12	12	16	21	22	27	39	41	44	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22
STE
DUN
MIN
BEG
LEO
TSO
MIY
MAI
CAM
BIL
DUR
MON
VAN
INT
GOE
FIT
HER
BOY
VAR
SHI
VIL
BEN

beats ↓ / →	STE	DUN	MIN	BEG	LEO	TSO	MIY	MAI	CAM	BIL
STE	—	51	59	66	67	74	82	84	85	88
DUN	49	—	59	66	66	73	82	83	86	88
MIN	41	41	—	58	58	66	76	78	81	84
BEG	34	34	42	—	49	57	70	72	75	79
LEO	33	34	42	51	—	57	70	71	74	78
TSO	26	27	34	43	43	—	64	65	69	73
MIY	18	18	24	30	30	36	—	52	55	61
MAI	16	17	22	28	29	35	48	—	54	59
CAM	15	14	19	25	26	31	45	46	—	56
BIL	12	12	16	21	22	27	39	41	44	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22
STE
DUN
MIN
BEG
LEO
TSO
MIY
MAI
CAM
BIL
DUR
MON
VAN
INT
GOE
FIT
HER
BOY
VAR
SHI
VIL
BEN

beats ↓ / →	STE	DUN	MIN	BEG	LEO	TSO	MIY	MAI	CAM	BIL
STE	—	51	59	66	67	74	82	84	85	88
DUN	49	—	59	66	66	73	82	83	86	88
MIN	41	41	—	58	58	66	76	78	81	84
BEG	34	34	42	—	49	57	70	72	75	79
LEO	33	34	42	51	—	57	70	71	74	78
TSO	26	27	34	43	43	—	64	65	69	73
MIY	18	18	24	30	30	36	—	52	55	61
MAI	16	17	22	28	29	35	48	—	54	59
CAM	15	14	19	25	26	31	45	46	—	56
BIL	12	12	16	21	22	27	39	41	44	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22
STE
DUN
MIN
BEG
LEO
TSO
MIY
MAI
CAM
BIL
DUR
MON
VAN
INT
GOE
FIT
HER
BOY
VAR
SHI
VIL
BEN

beats ↓ / →	STE	DUN	MIN	BEG	LEO	TSO	MIY	MAI	CAM	BIL
STE	—	51	59	66	67	74	82	84	85	88
DUN	49	—	59	66	66	73	82	83	86	88
MIN	41	41	—	58	58	66	76	78	81	84
BEG	34	34	42	—	49	57	70	72	75	79
LEO	33	34	42	51	—	57	70	71	74	78
TSO	26	27	34	43	43	—	64	65	69	73
MIY	18	18	24	30	30	36	—	52	55	61
MAI	16	17	22	28	29	35	48	—	54	59
CAM	15	14	19	25	26	31	45	46	—	56
BIL	12	12	16	21	22	27	39	41	44	—