Round 4: Monaco — RaceIQ F2

Round 04

Monaco

Sprint + FeatureResult + Forecast

Venue

Monaco

Weekend Format

FeatureSprint

Two scored races each round.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Gabriele Minì is the clear feature race favourite at 32% — nobody else clears 25%.

VERDICT

The feature race forecast missed the winner, had 1/3 of the podium — typical miss 4.9 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Alex Dunne

Rodin Motorsport

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P7

Predicted P3

Race Winner

Nikola Tsolov

Campos Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P6–P18

Predicted P13

Dino Beganovic

DAMS Lucas Oil

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P14

Predicted P6

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Minì

32%76%

Stenshorne

25%66%

Dunne

13%42%

Hoepen

11%39%

León

4%16%

Beganovic

2%10%

Miyata

2%7%

Dürksen

2%7%

Câmara

2%5%

Montoya

2%6%

Goethe

1%4%

Inthraphuvasak

1%4%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	Confidence	Actual
1	Gabriele Minì MP Motorsport	32%	76%	P1–P5	High	P11
2	Martinius Stenshorne Rodin Motorsport	25%	66%	P1–P5	High	P5
3	Alex Dunne Rodin Motorsport	13%	42%	P1–P7	High	P2
4	Laurens van Hoepen TRIDENT	11%	39%	P1–P8	High	P12
5	Noel León Campos Racing	4%	16%	P3–P11	High	P9
6	Dino Beganovic DAMS Lucas Oil	2%	10%	P3–P14	Medium	P3
7	Ritomo Miyata Hitech TGR	2%	7%	P4–P15	Medium	P6
8	Joshua Dürksen Invicta Racing	2%	7%	P4–P15	Medium	P15
9	Rafael Câmara Invicta Racing	2%	5%	P5–P16	Medium	—
10	Sebastián Montoya PREMA Racing	2%	6%	P5–P16	Medium	P8
11	Oliver Goethe MP Motorsport	1%	4%	P6–P18	Low	P14
12	Tasanapol Inthraphuvasak ART Grand Prix	1%	4%	P6–P18	Low	P13
13	Nikola Tsolov Campos Racing	1%	4%	P6–P18	Low	P1
14	Cian Herta Hitech TGR	1%	3%	P6–P18	Low	P19
15	Enzo Fittipaldi AIX Racing	1%	2%	P7–P19	Low	P7
16	Kush Maini ART Grand Prix	1%	2%	P8–P20	Low	P4
17	Rafael Villagómez Van Amersfoort Racing	1%	2%	P9–P20	Medium	P21
18	Roman Bilinski DAMS Lucas Oil	0%	1%	P9–P21	Low	P10
19	Mari Boya PREMA Racing	0%	1%	P10–P21	Medium	P16
20	Nicola Varrone Van Amersfoort Racing	0%	1%	P11–P21	High	P20
21	Callum Shields AIX Racing	0%	0%	P15–P22	High	P17
22	John Bennett TRIDENT	0%	0%	P16–P22	High	P18

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Gabriele Minì

31.9% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Race

Feature race

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Circuit & Telemetry

Circuit

Monaco

Vector layout

F2 races the same circuits as the lead category; layout geometry is shared. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, sector times, tyre stints) isn’t published for F2, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Minì

32%76%

Stenshorne

25%66%

Dunne

13%42%

Hoepen

11%39%

León

4%16%

Beganovic

2%10%

Miyata

2%7%

Dürksen

2%7%

Câmara

2%5%

Montoya

2%6%

Goethe

1%4%

Inthraphuvasak

1%4%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round — feature race

Predicted vs actual — feature race

Flatter lines = closer calls. 1 exact, 9 of 21 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22
MIN
STE
DUN
VAN
LEO
BEG
MIY
DUR
CAM
MON
GOE
INT
TSO
HER
FIT
MAI
VIL
BIL
BOY
VAR
SHI
BEN

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	MIN	STE	DUN	VAN	LEO	BEG	MIY	DUR	CAM	MON
MIN	—	57	72	75	88	93	94	95	96	96
STE	43	—	66	69	85	91	93	94	95	94
DUN	28	34	—	52	74	83	86	87	90	89
VAN	25	31	48	—	73	82	85	86	89	89
LEO	12	15	26	27	—	64	69	71	75	76
BEG	7	9	17	18	36	—	56	59	64	64
MIY	6	8	14	15	31	44	—	53	58	59
DUR	5	6	13	14	29	41	47	—	55	56
CAM	4	5	10	11	25	36	42	45	—	51
MON	4	6	11	11	24	36	41	44	49	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22
MIN
STE
DUN
VAN
LEO
BEG
MIY
DUR
CAM
MON
GOE
INT
TSO
HER
FIT
MAI
VIL
BIL
BOY
VAR
SHI
BEN

beats ↓ / →	MIN	STE	DUN	VAN	LEO	BEG	MIY	DUR	CAM	MON
MIN	—	57	72	75	88	93	94	95	96	96
STE	43	—	66	69	85	91	93	94	95	94
DUN	28	34	—	52	74	83	86	87	90	89
VAN	25	31	48	—	73	82	85	86	89	89
LEO	12	15	26	27	—	64	69	71	75	76
BEG	7	9	17	18	36	—	56	59	64	64
MIY	6	8	14	15	31	44	—	53	58	59
DUR	5	6	13	14	29	41	47	—	55	56
CAM	4	5	10	11	25	36	42	45	—	51
MON	4	6	11	11	24	36	41	44	49	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22
MIN
STE
DUN
VAN
LEO
BEG
MIY
DUR
CAM
MON
GOE
INT
TSO
HER
FIT
MAI
VIL
BIL
BOY
VAR
SHI
BEN

beats ↓ / →	MIN	STE	DUN	VAN	LEO	BEG	MIY	DUR	CAM	MON
MIN	—	57	72	75	88	93	94	95	96	96
STE	43	—	66	69	85	91	93	94	95	94
DUN	28	34	—	52	74	83	86	87	90	89
VAN	25	31	48	—	73	82	85	86	89	89
LEO	12	15	26	27	—	64	69	71	75	76
BEG	7	9	17	18	36	—	56	59	64	64
MIY	6	8	14	15	31	44	—	53	58	59
DUR	5	6	13	14	29	41	47	—	55	56
CAM	4	5	10	11	25	36	42	45	—	51
MON	4	6	11	11	24	36	41	44	49	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22
MIN
STE
DUN
VAN
LEO
BEG
MIY
DUR
CAM
MON
GOE
INT
TSO
HER
FIT
MAI
VIL
BIL
BOY
VAR
SHI
BEN

beats ↓ / →	MIN	STE	DUN	VAN	LEO	BEG	MIY	DUR	CAM	MON
MIN	—	57	72	75	88	93	94	95	96	96
STE	43	—	66	69	85	91	93	94	95	94
DUN	28	34	—	52	74	83	86	87	90	89
VAN	25	31	48	—	73	82	85	86	89	89
LEO	12	15	26	27	—	64	69	71	75	76
BEG	7	9	17	18	36	—	56	59	64	64
MIY	6	8	14	15	31	44	—	53	58	59
DUR	5	6	13	14	29	41	47	—	55	56
CAM	4	5	10	11	25	36	42	45	—	51
MON	4	6	11	11	24	36	41	44	49	—