Round 3: Canada — RaceIQ F2

Round 03

Canada

Sprint + FeatureResult + Forecast

Venue

Canada

Weekend Format

FeatureSprint

Two scored races each round.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Model favours Alex Dunne (30%) over Gabriele Minì (14%) in the feature race.

VERDICT

The feature race forecast missed the winner, had 2/3 of the podium — typical miss 7.3 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Alex Dunne

Rodin Motorsport

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P5

Predicted P1

Race Winner

Martinius Stenshorne

Rodin Motorsport

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P13

Predicted P9

Gabriele Minì

MP Motorsport

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P8

Predicted P2

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Dunne

30%71%

Minì

14%43%

Tsolov

14%42%

Câmara

8%27%

Hoepen

5%18%

León

5%18%

Dürksen

5%16%

Miyata

4%14%

Stenshorne

4%14%

Beganovic

3%8%

Inthraphuvasak

1%5%

Goethe

1%4%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	Confidence	Actual
1	Alex Dunne Rodin Motorsport	30%	71%	P1–P5	High	P2
2	Gabriele Minì MP Motorsport	14%	43%	P1–P8	High	P3
3	Nikola Tsolov Campos Racing	14%	42%	P1–P8	High	P12
4	Rafael Câmara Invicta Racing	8%	27%	P2–P10	High	P14
5	Laurens van Hoepen TRIDENT	5%	18%	P2–P12	Medium	—
6	Noel León Campos Racing	5%	18%	P2–P12	Medium	P10
7	Joshua Dürksen Invicta Racing	5%	16%	P3–P13	Medium	P11
8	Ritomo Miyata Hitech TGR	4%	14%	P3–P13	Medium	—
9	Martinius Stenshorne Rodin Motorsport	4%	14%	P3–P13	Medium	P1
10	Dino Beganovic DAMS Lucas Oil	3%	8%	P4–P15	Medium	—
11	Tasanapol Inthraphuvasak ART Grand Prix	1%	5%	P5–P17	Low	—
12	Oliver Goethe MP Motorsport	1%	4%	P6–P18	Low	—
13	Kush Maini ART Grand Prix	1%	4%	P6–P18	Low	P9
14	Sebastián Montoya PREMA Racing	1%	3%	P8–P19	Medium	P4
15	Cian Herta Hitech TGR	1%	3%	P8–P19	Medium	P7
16	Roman Bilinski DAMS Lucas Oil	1%	2%	P8–P19	Medium	P13
17	Rafael Villagómez Van Amersfoort Racing	1%	3%	P8–P19	Medium	—
18	Mari Boya PREMA Racing	0%	2%	P10–P20	Medium	P8
19	Nicola Varrone Van Amersfoort Racing	0%	1%	P12–P21	High	P6
20	Enzo Fittipaldi AIX Racing	0%	1%	P13–P21	High	—
21	John Bennett TRIDENT	0%	0%	P15–P22	High	—
22	Callum Shields AIX Racing	0%	0%	P20–P22	High	P5

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Alex Dunne

29.8% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Race

Feature race

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Circuit & Telemetry

Circuit

Canada

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

F2 races the same circuits as the lead category; layout geometry is shared. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, sector times, tyre stints) isn’t published for F2, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Dunne

30%71%

Minì

14%43%

Tsolov

14%42%

Câmara

8%27%

Hoepen

5%18%

León

5%18%

Dürksen

5%16%

Miyata

4%14%

Stenshorne

4%14%

Beganovic

3%8%

Inthraphuvasak

1%5%

Goethe

1%4%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round — feature race

Predicted vs actual — feature race

Flatter lines = closer calls. 0 exact, 3 of 14 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22
DUN
MIN
TSO
CAM
VAN
LEO
DUR
MIY
STE
BEG
INT
GOE
MAI
MON
HER
BIL
VIL
BOY
VAR
FIT
BEN
SHI

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	DUN	MIN	TSO	CAM	VAN	LEO	DUR	MIY	STE	BEG
DUN	—	69	70	79	85	86	86	88	89	93
MIN	31	—	51	64	73	73	76	77	78	86
TSO	30	49	—	63	71	73	75	77	77	86
CAM	21	36	37	—	61	62	65	67	67	79
VAN	15	27	29	39	—	50	54	57	57	71
LEO	14	27	27	38	50	—	53	56	56	70
DUR	14	24	25	35	46	47	—	54	53	69
MIY	12	24	23	33	43	44	46	—	50	65
STE	11	22	23	33	43	44	47	50	—	65
BEG	7	14	14	21	29	30	31	35	35	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22
DUN
MIN
TSO
CAM
VAN
LEO
DUR
MIY
STE
BEG
INT
GOE
MAI
MON
HER
BIL
VIL
BOY
VAR
FIT
BEN
SHI

beats ↓ / →	DUN	MIN	TSO	CAM	VAN	LEO	DUR	MIY	STE	BEG
DUN	—	69	70	79	85	86	86	88	89	93
MIN	31	—	51	64	73	73	76	77	78	86
TSO	30	49	—	63	71	73	75	77	77	86
CAM	21	36	37	—	61	62	65	67	67	79
VAN	15	27	29	39	—	50	54	57	57	71
LEO	14	27	27	38	50	—	53	56	56	70
DUR	14	24	25	35	46	47	—	54	53	69
MIY	12	24	23	33	43	44	46	—	50	65
STE	11	22	23	33	43	44	47	50	—	65
BEG	7	14	14	21	29	30	31	35	35	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22
DUN
MIN
TSO
CAM
VAN
LEO
DUR
MIY
STE
BEG
INT
GOE
MAI
MON
HER
BIL
VIL
BOY
VAR
FIT
BEN
SHI

beats ↓ / →	DUN	MIN	TSO	CAM	VAN	LEO	DUR	MIY	STE	BEG
DUN	—	69	70	79	85	86	86	88	89	93
MIN	31	—	51	64	73	73	76	77	78	86
TSO	30	49	—	63	71	73	75	77	77	86
CAM	21	36	37	—	61	62	65	67	67	79
VAN	15	27	29	39	—	50	54	57	57	71
LEO	14	27	27	38	50	—	53	56	56	70
DUR	14	24	25	35	46	47	—	54	53	69
MIY	12	24	23	33	43	44	46	—	50	65
STE	11	22	23	33	43	44	47	50	—	65
BEG	7	14	14	21	29	30	31	35	35	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22
DUN
MIN
TSO
CAM
VAN
LEO
DUR
MIY
STE
BEG
INT
GOE
MAI
MON
HER
BIL
VIL
BOY
VAR
FIT
BEN
SHI

beats ↓ / →	DUN	MIN	TSO	CAM	VAN	LEO	DUR	MIY	STE	BEG
DUN	—	69	70	79	85	86	86	88	89	93
MIN	31	—	51	64	73	73	76	77	78	86
TSO	30	49	—	63	71	73	75	77	77	86
CAM	21	36	37	—	61	62	65	67	67	79
VAN	15	27	29	39	—	50	54	57	57	71
LEO	14	27	27	38	50	—	53	56	56	70
DUR	14	24	25	35	46	47	—	54	53	69
MIY	12	24	23	33	43	44	46	—	50	65
STE	11	22	23	33	43	44	47	50	—	65
BEG	7	14	14	21	29	30	31	35	35	—