Round 12: Azerbaijan

Round 12

Azerbaijan

Sprint + FeatureUpcoming Forecast

Venue

Azerbaijan

Weekend Format

FeatureSprint

Two scored races each round.

Status

Scheduled

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Gabriele Minì is the clear feature race favourite at 33% — nobody else clears 17%.

TITLE

Gabriele Minì has one hand on the title (98% on 108 pts); 22 drivers remain mathematically alive.

Model Forecast

Predicted Podium

Prediction published

Alex Dunne

Rodin Motorsport

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P7

Projected Winner

Gabriele Minì

MP Motorsport

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P5

Nikola Tsolov

Campos Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P8

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Minì

33%76%

Dunne

17%48%

Tsolov

13%43%

Câmara

7%27%

León

7%27%

Maini

4%12%

Inthraphuvasak

3%11%

Goethe

3%11%

Montoya

3%9%

Beganovic

2%8%

Hoepen

1%5%

Bilinski

1%5%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	Confidence
1	Gabriele Minì MP Motorsport	33%	76%	P1–P5	High
2	Alex Dunne Rodin Motorsport	17%	48%	P1–P7	High
3	Nikola Tsolov Campos Racing	13%	43%	P1–P8	High
4	Rafael Câmara Invicta Racing	7%	27%	P2–P10	High
5	Noel León Campos Racing	7%	27%	P2–P10	High
6	Kush Maini ART Grand Prix	4%	12%	P3–P14	Medium
7	Tasanapol Inthraphuvasak ART Grand Prix	3%	11%	P3–P14	Medium
8	Oliver Goethe MP Motorsport	3%	11%	P3–P14	Medium
9	Sebastián Montoya PREMA Racing	3%	9%	P4–P15	Medium
10	Dino Beganovic DAMS Lucas Oil	2%	8%	P4–P15	Medium
11	Laurens van Hoepen TRIDENT	1%	5%	P5–P17	Low
12	Roman Bilinski DAMS Lucas Oil	1%	5%	P5–P17	Low
13	Joshua Dürksen Invicta Racing	1%	5%	P5–P17	Low
14	John Bennett TRIDENT	0%	3%	P8–P19	Medium
15	Rafael Villagómez Van Amersfoort Racing	1%	2%	P8–P20	Low
16	Martinius Stenshorne Rodin Motorsport	1%	2%	P9–P20	Medium
17	Ritomo Miyata Hitech TGR	0%	1%	P10–P20	Medium
18	Cian Herta Hitech TGR	0%	1%	P11–P21	Medium
19	Nicola Varrone Van Amersfoort Racing	0%	1%	P12–P21	High
20	Enzo Fittipaldi AIX Racing	0%	1%	P12–P21	High
21	Mari Boya PREMA Racing	0%	1%	P12–P21	High
22	Callum Shields AIX Racing	0%	0%	P19–P22	High

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Gabriele Minì

33.5% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Race

Feature race

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Circuit & Telemetry

Circuit

Azerbaijan

Vector layout

F2 races the same circuits as the lead category; layout geometry is shared. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, sector times, tyre stints) isn’t published for F2, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Minì

33%76%

Dunne

17%48%

Tsolov

13%43%

Câmara

7%27%

León

7%27%

Maini

4%12%

Inthraphuvasak

3%11%

Goethe

3%11%

Montoya

3%9%

Beganovic

2%8%

Hoepen

1%5%

Bilinski

1%5%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round — feature race

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22
MIN
DUN
TSO
CAM
LEO
MAI
INT
GOE
MON
BEG
VAN
BIL
DUR
BEN
VIL
STE
MIY
HER
VAR
FIT
BOY
SHI

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	MIN	DUN	TSO	CAM	LEO	MAI	INT	GOE	MON	BEG
MIN	—	68	71	82	81	91	92	92	93	94
DUN	32	—	55	66	67	83	84	84	86	88
TSO	29	45	—	62	64	80	81	82	85	86
CAM	18	34	38	—	51	72	73	74	77	79
LEO	19	34	36	49	—	70	73	73	77	78
MAI	9	17	20	28	30	—	51	51	56	60
INT	8	16	19	27	28	49	—	51	55	58
GOE	8	16	18	26	27	49	49	—	56	58
MON	7	14	15	23	23	44	45	44	—	52
BEG	6	12	14	21	22	40	42	42	48	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22
MIN
DUN
TSO
CAM
LEO
MAI
INT
GOE
MON
BEG
VAN
BIL
DUR
BEN
VIL
STE
MIY
HER
VAR
FIT
BOY
SHI

beats ↓ / →	MIN	DUN	TSO	CAM	LEO	MAI	INT	GOE	MON	BEG
MIN	—	68	71	82	81	91	92	92	93	94
DUN	32	—	55	66	67	83	84	84	86	88
TSO	29	45	—	62	64	80	81	82	85	86
CAM	18	34	38	—	51	72	73	74	77	79
LEO	19	34	36	49	—	70	73	73	77	78
MAI	9	17	20	28	30	—	51	51	56	60
INT	8	16	19	27	28	49	—	51	55	58
GOE	8	16	18	26	27	49	49	—	56	58
MON	7	14	15	23	23	44	45	44	—	52
BEG	6	12	14	21	22	40	42	42	48	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22
MIN
DUN
TSO
CAM
LEO
MAI
INT
GOE
MON
BEG
VAN
BIL
DUR
BEN
VIL
STE
MIY
HER
VAR
FIT
BOY
SHI

beats ↓ / →	MIN	DUN	TSO	CAM	LEO	MAI	INT	GOE	MON	BEG
MIN	—	68	71	82	81	91	92	92	93	94
DUN	32	—	55	66	67	83	84	84	86	88
TSO	29	45	—	62	64	80	81	82	85	86
CAM	18	34	38	—	51	72	73	74	77	79
LEO	19	34	36	49	—	70	73	73	77	78
MAI	9	17	20	28	30	—	51	51	56	60
INT	8	16	19	27	28	49	—	51	55	58
GOE	8	16	18	26	27	49	49	—	56	58
MON	7	14	15	23	23	44	45	44	—	52
BEG	6	12	14	21	22	40	42	42	48	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22
MIN
DUN
TSO
CAM
LEO
MAI
INT
GOE
MON
BEG
VAN
BIL
DUR
BEN
VIL
STE
MIY
HER
VAR
FIT
BOY
SHI

beats ↓ / →	MIN	DUN	TSO	CAM	LEO	MAI	INT	GOE	MON	BEG
MIN	—	68	71	82	81	91	92	92	93	94
DUN	32	—	55	66	67	83	84	84	86	88
TSO	29	45	—	62	64	80	81	82	85	86
CAM	18	34	38	—	51	72	73	74	77	79
LEO	19	34	36	49	—	70	73	73	77	78
MAI	9	17	20	28	30	—	51	51	56	60
INT	8	16	19	27	28	49	—	51	55	58
GOE	8	16	18	26	27	49	49	—	56	58
MON	7	14	15	23	23	44	45	44	—	52
BEG	6	12	14	21	22	40	42	42	48	—